September 2012

Of course with a very expensive law education to pay for, the money is a critical consideration. Here in NZ, it will only cost me 10% of the US, or $20K. The salaries over here in NZ dollars are about the same +/-.

For me its not actually about the money, more that I am bored with medicine and the stock market is not a day trading proposition for me, I’m more about building wealth than creating an income.

The duc finds himself on a new path. I am next March, going to take a place at Law School. I have applied for a place at Auckland University Law School. Having spoken to the chap’s they were fairly certain that with my existing Medical qualifications, I would secure a place.

The effects on the blog will only reflect any change in that I will start having an increasing number of Law based posts. This is primarily to aid in my thinking through the new material. Having already started my reading, I find myself at odds with some of the jurisprudence already.

There are flip-flops all over blogoland this week:


And as often happens right when you think you have a handle on what’s going on the market throws you a curve ball. In order for assets to continue rising the dollar has to resume it’s downward trajectory. It didn’t do that today. That’s a warning sign that we may be on the cusp of an intermediate degree rally in the dollar, which would probably trigger an intermediate degree correction in stocks and precious metals.

More in the weekend report.

Oil has formed a swing and bounced off the 50% retracement I was looking at as a possible cycle low target. Gold, silver and stocks have clearly received the signal and are ready for the next leg up (which should mean the dollar cycle has topped and is ready for the next leg down).

Stocks may be locked in a runaway move which I discussed in last nights report in the premium newsletter.

SMT premium newsletter. $10 one week trial.

This coming week seems to have reintroduced some uncertainty into blogoland pundits. Have a read of the duCati Report to catch my view. This is one of those weeks that the $10.oo is easily recouped.

Will the S&P 500 be higher or lower than its current level one month from now?
Higher 45% 72
Lower 55% 87

159 votes total

The bears are once again leading the poll. The chart shows higher highs and higher lows. The definition of an uptrend. However the chart also demonstrates that declines are possible and that they can be severe. This is the nature of markets.

I’ll post last week’s newsletter to illustrate the predictive power of the COT analysis with regard to market movement in short time frames and why its such good value.

Based upon the laws of mathematics, of the sublime nature, the market is not going to bounce until we hit certain levels. I will reveal to you what is seen on a daily basis inside of the hallowed grounds of The PPT, as a gesture of kindness.

As you can see, the algo marked the top of the range and hasn’t flagged OVERSOLD (OS) yet.

There are levels of OS we are prepared to buy. I am eying the 6 month OVERSOLD range as a possible buy point for the rest of my cash.

As you can see, this level has not failed dip buyers at all, over the past 6 months. After that, I will fall back on the 12 month and 36 month algos, all sublime in nature, touting accuracy stats greater than 76% with a much larger data set.

So essentially if the 6mth is wrong, then you simply try another level and declare victory if it pans out. So you cannot lose, as losses are simply signals that are moved until you win. What a load of bollocks.

If you’re wondering why I haven’t adhered to my own computer brain by going to cash when the algo said we were OB, the answer is simple: gluttony.

Not really. Seen this film before. You never follow the ppt. Probably because it is wrong so often, that it is Jeremy’s algo and that you only promote it to sell it. To sell it, you have to create fictional results as the ppt is as any trading signal, replete with failures.

Punishment for my crime is loss of time. Making back the money is the easy part for me. I do this, quite successfully, for a living. I’ve never been faced with a problem that couldn’t be solved. It’s the puzzle that keeps me interested. However, it’s the loss of time that I lament the most.

Sure, you never lose money. That is because the trades are largely fictional. There are no third party results that can be tracked, verifying the returns claimed. Which rather suggests the entire ppt charade is purely to fleece the unwary.

I also earlier in the week contacted Chess “n” Wine to see if he provided back issues of his weekly report. Unfortunately not. There is no way in which the value of his weekly report can be verified prior to subscription. Shame.

The entire iBankcoin site is based on hearsay. There seems no way to verify any of the results. The general defence is that you have to “join” the ppt to see timestamped trades, which presumably provide the necessary evidence. Well my blog posts are timestamped and I can amend/modify them at anytime I choose. I am hardly filled with confidence through that claim.

If anything lost him the election it was probably this.

Is this bounce today dip buyers with the resumption of the upward trend, or, can we expect further weakness in the market? This question is directly answered in this week’s duCati Report which I may post tomorrow. I may however only start posting them 4 at a time, at the end of the month. The reason being that in some of the Reports I project a couple of week’s forward. In addition there are ample examples to provide an idea of what the Report seeks to provide.

I will continue to post the results each week.

The multiplier fades in and out of popularity. The multiplier is the obverse of the “stable consumption function”. The investment multiplier reasoning follows this train of thought: Social Income = Consumption + Investment. Consumption through empirical data is statistically determined to be 0.80 of income.

Income = 0.80 + Investment
0.20 of Income = Investment
Income = 1/5 [Investment]

The 1/5 = the “multiplier”. To increase “Social Money” which is seen as a “good thing” then all that is required is to increase investment by 1/5 and allow the multiplier to do its work.

Keynes and Keynesian’s realized that investment is active and therefore volatile. However government “investment” is far more stable in that government can create new money with which to undertake “investment” from which then the multiplier effect takes hold. The reasons are twofold: [i] private funds are not [in Keynesian theory] reduced, [ii] investment is released from “income”.

The eponymous multiplier was then stretched to the “acceleration principal” which applies to the business cycle. The acceleration principal takes as its starting point the noted higher volatility within the capital goods section of an economy. This fallacy was exploded by W.H. Hutt. Essentially the error of the Keynesian thought revolved around arbitrary chosen periods of time in which the changes were noted. The correct time period should be the lifespan of the depreciated capital good in question.

I have put in a GTC Limit order @ $32.oo for DDD.

I can imagine the market opening lower tomorrow, so there is a good chance of a fill at my price and possibly even lower. I’ll be buying flippe-floppe’s broken trade as he rotates back into cash.

*Trade cancelled

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