swing-trading


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Markets, including GE and HK are rising.

Whenever you show a profit, there is always that temptation to take a fast [small] profit. The problem is, what do you replace it with? Is there a better opportunity? At the moment I’m happy to continue to hold both.

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Bought HK $10 strike @ July 2018 @ $0.55

This was on the back of some pretty heavy buying by a couple of Hedge Funds.

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Just bought GE.

There are some big buyers of the stock, individuals and Hedge Funds over the past couple of weeks. The price is now [pretty much] bottomed and seems to be stabilising [see daily chart] at these levels.

To get some leverage, I bought Jan 18 2019 Calls at $0.43 at strike $23.

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I’m liking the fact that DBO has found a statistical range in two time-frames, suggesting a short term technical bottom.

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I’m looking to put on a silver trade tomorrow. It looks as if silver has bottomed, at least in the daily time-frame and is now due a bounce. I would love to see $17, but $16 makes the trade worthwhile with a 20%+ return over 3 weeks.

I’ll place a spread trade, to minimise [loss] risk and try and leverage any upside using options.

So below is the trade.

The time-frame is obviously critical. I’m looking at Week 4 expiry for this trade. This is the least capital that can be risked, for bigger trades simply add options.

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Wheat is looking to be an attractive trade.

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I may look at opening a small position over the next couple of days.

Commodities eliminate the risk around a company going bankrupt etc. Also, food, will never go out of fashion. I would have liked more volatility and the constant down trend could make trading around this position difficult for a while. On the other hand, should the trend change direction, there may be a prolonged upward trend which would be nice.

The ‘futures’ contract shows more up/down volatility, which makes me think that the trend may be in part a function of the instrument [ETF] rather than a pure function of wheat itself. Therefore I’ll look at it for a few days and see whether the ETF correlates to the futures contract in any meaningful way. If not, then as a trade, it probably won’t work that well.

* Having just checked more closely, the ETF mirrors the futures contract, so no issues there.

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UA has taken a beating just recently, due to some aggressive marketing/competition from Nike.

Is it now a buy?

Simply on the number of shoes/t-shirts/etc that I see being worn, quite possibly. On a ‘chart’ basis, you would probably like to see the end of the downtrend first before committing any cash to the trade.

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