swing-trading


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I’m liking the fact that DBO has found a statistical range in two time-frames, suggesting a short term technical bottom.

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I’m looking to put on a silver trade tomorrow. It looks as if silver has bottomed, at least in the daily time-frame and is now due a bounce. I would love to see $17, but $16 makes the trade worthwhile with a 20%+ return over 3 weeks.

I’ll place a spread trade, to minimise [loss] risk and try and leverage any upside using options.

So below is the trade.

The time-frame is obviously critical. I’m looking at Week 4 expiry for this trade. This is the least capital that can be risked, for bigger trades simply add options.

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Wheat is looking to be an attractive trade.

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I may look at opening a small position over the next couple of days.

Commodities eliminate the risk around a company going bankrupt etc. Also, food, will never go out of fashion. I would have liked more volatility and the constant down trend could make trading around this position difficult for a while. On the other hand, should the trend change direction, there may be a prolonged upward trend which would be nice.

The ‘futures’ contract shows more up/down volatility, which makes me think that the trend may be in part a function of the instrument [ETF] rather than a pure function of wheat itself. Therefore I’ll look at it for a few days and see whether the ETF correlates to the futures contract in any meaningful way. If not, then as a trade, it probably won’t work that well.

* Having just checked more closely, the ETF mirrors the futures contract, so no issues there.

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UA has taken a beating just recently, due to some aggressive marketing/competition from Nike.

Is it now a buy?

Simply on the number of shoes/t-shirts/etc that I see being worn, quite possibly. On a ‘chart’ basis, you would probably like to see the end of the downtrend first before committing any cash to the trade.

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Missed the $5 jump higher. Sold some Options against the position.

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Trading at $16.38, have a covered call sell/buy to close order at $16.42

 

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Bought this yesterday at $11.14.

This is going to be a very volatile stock, both to the upside and downside.

*I have just placed an order to sell 100 shares at $14.78

*Just cancelled that order. Rather, I will sell 1 Option contract at $15.oo and 1 contract at $18.oo, expiry May. This better corresponds with a monthly rebalance.

Sold 1 contract at $15.oo for $2.00 and 1 contract at $18.oo for $1.05. This is just a bog standard covered call strategy.

 

 

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