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DJIIA_1113

There is obviously a huge range that has predominated since 2000. That range with the right strategy represents huge profits. I run two strategies that profit from market conditions that we have seen. Additionally, should a new bull market break out, it will profit handsomely.

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grek

Who knew that there was a Greek ETF. Well there are ETF’s for everything, but somehow this one escaped my notice. I’m adding it.

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The final backdated COT data has been made available. This means that with this weekend’s COT data there will be a new duCati Report.

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Just waiting on last week’s COT data and then we are caught up. The next newsletter will contain all the missing periods and how they correlated to the market just to provide the context. It should be next week.

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I’m just waiting on this week’s COT data and then we are back on schedule.

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The data is being released every other day or so and will be current probably by this weekend hopefully.

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Just surfing around blogoland the general concensus would seem to be that the bull market continues, but it is not loved.

The thing is; what else is there? Inflation is present and the PV of money is eroding. Markets rising to new nominal highs offset that erosion, so investors stay long. Bonds are showing close to negative real returns, why would you want to be in them? Commodities are treading water. I quite like commodities, but accept that it will take some significant time to pay off. With the world in recession and relying on credit expansion for the tepid growth, commodities are a long game.

Short term trading, which would be for positions of about a year, should embrace market neutral strategies. These protect you against the unforeseen disaster and allow you to participate more confidently in the bull move. It avoids the necessity of having and justifying a market outlook based on anything, fundamentals, politics, or squiggles on a chart.

Longer term [long only] strategies require you to buy and sell and obviously require ‘timing’ decisions. You need some form of decision model that you will emotionally adhere to, to plan these buy/sell decisions.

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