No significant, or material change in the technical picture. Still waiting on earnings, Jan 27, for a view on the fundamental picture. On that basis, no action yet taken, still exercising patience.
January 8, 2010
As Kat suggested, the weekly chart of Green Mountain, provides a technical observation that reduces the noise. Technically we see a clear breakout and the very definition of a long trend, viz. higher highs and higher lows. Thus the correct technical position is long
The consolidation range of $55 to $75 and the break higher, suggest a strong move higher, which should easily see $100+/share.
Fundamentally, nothing to-date has changed. The financials reek of manipulation and weakness that has been camoflaged. Eventually the weakness will out, imploding the stock, where it will become a very attractive short.
January 7, 2010
Stocks, commodities are all on a tear upwards due to Federal Reserve liquidity pumping. Green Mountain Coffee, fundamentally speaking, is an abomination, and so over-valued as to be totally ridiculous. However, it has, like other rubbish stocks, been rising in value relentlessly.
If, you want like I do, to short this stock, there are some very real requirements that need to be fulfilled. The main one is a legitimate catalyst: exposure of financial skullduggery is the main one, however loss of trading momentum is another.
Recognition of these, or other catalysts, takes time. They will not necessarily simply appear at some nice round number, say $100/share, they might, but, probably not.
Selling short, for more than return-to-the-median trades is an art form that has pretty much disappeared, possibly due to the Central Bank becoming so involved in fighting bear markets, the general market is another major factor in taking successful short positions. If you are fighting the cyclical or secular trend, you are walking uphill immediately.