Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

This is one bike that I never get tired looking at. I’ve liked any number, and owned any number of bikes in the past from GPz 900R’s through to GSXR’s, Honda Fireblades, and Yamahas etc. But that Ducati shape is unique and ageless.

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-5-23-44-am

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-5-24-02-am

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-5-22-33-am

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

The 996R is still the classic Ducati shape. Just can’t be beat.

 

screen-shot-2016-12-08-at-8-36-04-pm

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

I’ve highlighted that the 2 bond Kings are less than impressed with the move in stocks. The majority of articles however are very bullish for stocks moving forward. They are also bullish on the economy generally.

I haven’t really had time to sit down and really think my way through the issues, so I’m just reading the articles at the moment.

From a purely historical/technical perspective, this current market resembles somewhat the market of the 1970’s into the early 1980’s. The obvious difference however is that the interest rate environment is inverted.

0615051task

0615052task

Ignoring the headlines, as headlines are headlines, the prolonged ‘nowhere’ finally broke out into a massive bull market. This coincided with a fall [for 30 years] of interest rates.

We have the massive ‘nowhere’ pattern. We don’t have an interest rate environment that can fall any lower. The only new direction is up, or a continuance of low interest rates.

‘Low’ would be anything up to 7%. As long as interest rates gradually move up to, and do not exceed that sort of number, we could have another bull market leg.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Today’s jobs report isn’t looking like it can prevent a rate hike. That means investors are closing out the week with more head-scratching about the “Trump trade.”

The big question is whether it’s back into the cage for those animal spiritsunleashed by The Donald’s election win. Maybe the wild rumpus is just getting started, suggests Josh Brown.

“If this sort of thing extends beyond the speculators in the stock market into the actual C-suites where spending and investment decisions are made, then it becomes self-fulfilling and it could actually work,” Brown writes over at his Reformed Broker blog. “If it doesn’t, well then at least we’ll have some fun in the meantime.”

Count Jeff Gundlach among those arguing that the party is over. He provides our call of the day.

“The dollar is going to go down, yields have peaked and will move sideways, stocks have peaked as well, and gold is going to go up in the short term,” the DoubleLine Capital CEO says in an interview with Reuters. “It is so late to be buying the Trump trade.”

Gundlach, who voted for Trump and predicted the GOP nominee would win, says people are expecting too much, after earlier being too gloomy.

“People were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression — and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz,” the star manager says, adding that “there’s no magic here.”

Gundlach is known for savvy calls, but the “bond king” doesn’t always nail it. He predicted in mid-November that the 10-year Treasury yieldTMUBMUSD10Y, +0.16% would not move above 2.35%, but it has hovered around 2.45% this week.

Staying on the topic of the president-elect’s effect on markets, our chart of the day shows how one of the friskiest Trump trades just lost 75% of its post-election gain.

Futures for the Dow YMZ6, +0.04%  , S&P 500 ESZ6, +0.06% and Nasdaq-100NQZ6, +0.06%  are dipping, as the Dow DJIA, +0.18%  eyes a small weekly gain after another record close yesterday. The S&P SPX, +0.34% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.45%  , on the other hand, are on track for weekly drops of roughly 1% and 3%, respectively.

Oil prices CLF7, -0.22%  are giving up a little bit of their OPEC-fueled gains, while Europe SXXP, +0.97%  is significantly lower as investors worry about Italy’s referendum on Sunday. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

Traders here and there are pointing out the “Trump rally” has faded for biotech stocks XBI, +1.85%  .

The chart above shows how one key biotech ETF IBB, +0.89%  has knifed below its 200-day moving average, a level that it had been living above since the day after Election Day. This ETF was up 12% from its Nov. 8 close as of mid-November, but it’s up just 3% as of Thursday’s close.

This can’t be helping: Allergan’s AGN, -0.13%  CEO argued yesterday that Trump’s election won’t take the focus off high drug prices.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Bill Gross isn’t buying the Trump rally and the prospects for growth driving it.

As President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team takes shape, led by Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin, investors are misguided in betting that promised tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation will spur faster growth, according to an e-mail Thursday from Gross, the billionaire bond fund manager. He said the benefits from such fiscal stimulus likely would be temporary.

Gross said future growth is primarily a function of productivity, which has flat lined for the last several years and shows little promise of accelerating.

“A strong dollar and continuing structural headwinds including aging demographics, de-globalization trade policies, and accelerating debt-to-GDP in almost all countries at now higher interest rates, promise to contain productivity at perhaps 1 percent annual growth rates and therefore real GDP growth at 2 percent,” he wrote.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up Thursday, the 13th daily gain in the 16 trading days since Trump’s surprise Nov. 8 election victory. Treasuries extended losses, continuing the biggest increase in yields on 10-year notes since 2009 following Trump’s triumph. Yields on the 10-year may rise to almost 2.5 percent by the end of this month, Gross said.

“An investor should move to cash and cash alternatives, such as high probability equity arbitrage situations,” Gross, who runs the $1.7 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said. “Bond durations should be far below benchmarks.”

Jeffrey Gundlach, whose DoubleLine Capital oversaw more than $106 billion as of Sept. 30, also warned investors Thursday to be wary of a Trump rally.

“There is going to be a buyer’s remorse period,” Gundlach said in an interview with Reuters. “The dollar is going to go down, yields have peaked and will move sideways, stocks have peaked as well and gold is going to go up in the short term.”

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Well we had our LLB results. We both passed. As we are already underway with the Bar exam, we carry on now knowing that we can complete the whole process.

The whole thing is a bit of an anti-climax. It will take a little bit of time for it to sink in. It doesn’t help that we are already very busy and under 2 exams-a-week pressure with the Bar.

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

On Sunday, France’s Republican Party will choose its candidate for the presidential election next spring. Opinion polls say that the Republicans are so far ahead that the party, in effect, is about to name the next president — either Alain Juppe or Francois Fillon, former prime ministers offering not-too-dissimilar conservative programs.

The polls, for once, had better be right. The likely alternative to either of those men would be disastrous — and not just for France.

Support for the Socialist party has collapsed: President Francois Hollande’s approval rating stands (if that’s the right word) at 4 percent. So the Republican nominee is likely to face Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist National Front. She’s France’s answer to Donald Trump, except with more self-discipline, added xenophobia and a clearer sense of purpose. If she wins, the European Union would be badly and perhaps fatally wounded. By comparison, Brexit would be a minor nuisance.

Le Pen celebrated Britain’s vote to quit last June as the beginning of the end for the EU — a project she’s called “objectively a total failure.” An EU without France, which designed and built the EU alongside Germany, is objectively a hard thing to imagine. A National Front victory would shake Europe more violently than Trump’s win has rocked the U.S.

The polls suggest that either Fillon or Juppe ought to beat her easily — but there are many unknowns. It’s unclear who will stand for the Socialists, for example, or whether Emmanuel Macron (who quit the government earlier this year and leads a new party) will gather strong support. Right now, though, the threat from Le Pen looks real.