stocks


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It was this [partial] post that got me thinking, as there are a number [lots?] of systems traders out there:

I don’t think I curve fit and use price action patterns as a basis for all my code , the majority of my indicators are custom written by myself ( why I will not divulge or discuss ) and represent tangible price action events . Median reversion is the basis of my systems and I filter what I see as important aspects of price action . The counts used in charts here are only a part of the process but they do measure trend and reversals and are integral part of what I do on every time frame .

So my question is: is every bar created equal?

The answer [to my mind] is clearly no.

Some bars contain nothing but trading noise, whereas other bars contain important information.

Will the market [the sum of all participants of a given bar] treat the same information in the same way as they did previously?

Again, my answer would be clearly no. The participants could, and likely would be, completely different, with the commensurate difference in subjective views. That is just one example, there are hundreds of reasons why the reaction could be different.

Therefore, building a trading system/methodology, based on historical data is prone to randomness, exactly what you are trying to eliminate.

Is this a futile undertaking?

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“This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” David Tepper

“Most people are too fretful, they worry too much. Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” Charlie Munger

“I consider patience to be the most important ingredient for success in the market.” Francois Rochon

“People always want investments to go up like a line.…That’s just not reality. You make 80% of your money in 20% of the time in investing and you have to be patient.” Jeffery Gundlach

“[There] is the need for patience if big profits are to be made from investment.  Put another way, it is often easier to tell what will happen to the price of a stock than how much time will elapse before it happens”  Phil Fisher

“One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do” James Rogers

Patience, patience and more patience. Ben Graham said it, but it is true of all investment disciplines, not only value investing, although it is indispensable to that” Peter Cundill

“Inaction and patience are almost always the wisest options for investors in the stock market” Guy Spier

“Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting” Jessie Livermore

“There aren’t always great things to do, and sometimes we maximize our contribution by being discerning and relatively inactive. Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy” Howard Marks

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up” James Rogers

“You don’t have to be fully invested all the time. Have patience, keep your standards.” Irving Kahn

“We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely” Warren Buffett

“I like to be very patient and then when I see something, go a little bit crazy.”  Stanley Druckenmiller

“In our style of doing things, patience is patience is patience” Peter Cundill

“When there’s nothing particularly clever to do, the potential pitfall lies in insisting on being clever” Howard Marks.

“Happiness ensues when it is not pursued – investing is the same thing. Success occurs when you are willing to wait for opportunities” Mark Kingdon

“Investors need discipline to avoid the many unattractive pitches that are thrown, patience to wait for the right pitch, and judgement to know when it is time to swing” Seth Klarman

“The big money is not in the buying and selling … but in the waiting”   Charlie Munger

“The stock market is like the weather in that if you don’t like the current conditions all you have to do is wait awhile”  Lou Simpson

“The single most important skill for being a good investor is to be very content with not doing anything for extended periods and that’s perfectly fine” Mohnish Pabrai

“Our success rests on having the discipline to wait patiently for opportunities to present themselves and then having the courage to run towards them when everyone else is running away” Steve Leonard

“Some would say that this patience is part of our strategy, but I would say it’s more part of our DNA. I like to say “If there’s nothing to do, do nothing”  Jim Tisch

“We don’t have to swing at everything” Mario Gabelli

“The trick in investing it just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling “swing you bum”, ignore them.  There is a temptation for people to act far to frequently in stocks just because they are liquid”  Warren Buffett

“Be patient. Watched stock never boils” Peter Lynch

“You have to have patience in any business, and I think ours is no different”  Andreas Halvorsen

“Legendary investor Peter Lynch always emphasized the importance of being patient: “Frequently, years of patience are rewarded in a single year” Francois Rochon

“Sitting still is the hardest thing to do. As Pascal wrote ‘The hardest thing for a man to do is sit quietly in a room'” Mark Kingdon

“Money managers running all types of strategies need good action plans for periods when the opportunity set is fallow. They must resist the allure of stretching parameters and rationalizing why merely good positions are okay to establish in the absence of very good or great positions” Paul Singer

“The beauty in this business is that there are just hordes of future opportunities waiting and some of them may be huge if you’re patient.  And I think Ben Franklin summed it up well: “He who has patience can have what he will” Frank Martin

“Have patience.  Stocks don’t go up immediately” Walter Schloss

“This company looks cheap, that company looks cheap, but the overall economy could completely screw it up. The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” David Tepper

“Most people are too fretful, they worry too much. Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” Charlie Munger

“I consider patience to be the most important ingredient for success in the market.” Francois Rochon

“People always want investments to go up like a line.…That’s just not reality. You make 80% of your money in 20% of the time in investing and you have to be patient.” Jeffery Gundlach

“[There] is the need for patience if big profits are to be made from investment.  Put another way, it is often easier to tell what will happen to the price of a stock than how much time will elapse before it happens”  Phil Fisher

“One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do” James Rogers

Patience, patience and more patience. Ben Graham said it, but it is true of all investment disciplines, not only value investing, although it is indispensable to that” Peter Cundill

“Inaction and patience are almost always the wisest options for investors in the stock market” Guy Spier

“Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting” Jessie Livermore

“There aren’t always great things to do, and sometimes we maximize our contribution by being discerning and relatively inactive. Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy” Howard Marks

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up” James Rogers

“You don’t have to be fully invested all the time. Have patience, keep your standards.” Irving Kahn

“We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we’ll wait, we’ll wait indefinitely” Warren Buffett

“I like to be very patient and then when I see something, go a little bit crazy.”  Stanley Druckenmiller

“In our style of doing things, patience is patience is patience” Peter Cundill

“When there’s nothing particularly clever to do, the potential pitfall lies in insisting on being clever” Howard Marks.

“Happiness ensues when it is not pursued – investing is the same thing. Success occurs when you are willing to wait for opportunities” Mark Kingdon

“Investors need discipline to avoid the many unattractive pitches that are thrown, patience to wait for the right pitch, and judgement to know when it is time to swing” Seth Klarman

“The big money is not in the buying and selling … but in the waiting”   Charlie Munger

“The stock market is like the weather in that if you don’t like the current conditions all you have to do is wait awhile”  Lou Simpson

“The single most important skill for being a good investor is to be very content with not doing anything for extended periods and that’s perfectly fine” Mohnish Pabrai

“Our success rests on having the discipline to wait patiently for opportunities to present themselves and then having the courage to run towards them when everyone else is running away” Steve Leonard

“Some would say that this patience is part of our strategy, but I would say it’s more part of our DNA. I like to say “If there’s nothing to do, do nothing”  Jim Tisch

“We don’t have to swing at everything” Mario Gabelli

“The trick in investing it just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling “swing you bum”, ignore them.  There is a temptation for people to act far to frequently in stocks just because they are liquid”  Warren Buffett

“Be patient. Watched stock never boils” Peter Lynch

“You have to have patience in any business, and I think ours is no different”  Andreas Halvorsen

“Legendary investor Peter Lynch always emphasized the importance of being patient: “Frequently, years of patience are rewarded in a single year” Francois Rochon

“Sitting still is the hardest thing to do. As Pascal wrote ‘The hardest thing for a man to do is sit quietly in a room'” Mark Kingdon

“Money managers running all types of strategies need good action plans for periods when the opportunity set is fallow. They must resist the allure of stretching parameters and rationalizing why merely good positions are okay to establish in the absence of very good or great positions” Paul Singer

“The beauty in this business is that there are just hordes of future opportunities waiting and some of them may be huge if you’re patient.  And I think Ben Franklin summed it up well: “He who has patience can have what he will” Frank Martin

“Have patience.  Stocks don’t go up immediately” Walter Schloss

“Traditionally the investor has been the man with patience and the courage of his convictions who would buy when the harried or disheartened speculator was selling”  Benjamin Graham & David Dodd

“Being patient is at the cornerstone of everything we do” John Rogers

“We do a lot of thinking and not a lot of acting.  A lot of investors do a lot of acting, and not a lot of thinking” Lou Simpson

“Investors who aspire to long term success cannot afford the luxury of impatience [though they usually think the opposite is true]” Frank Martin

“Value investing requires deep reservoirs of patience and discipline”  Seth Klarman

“We have a culture of patience. Even though we work hard every day trying to uncover the next great investment, we only deploy our capital when we have real conviction that we have found one. When we don’t find interesting ideas, we do nothing and hold cash. For this reason, I’ve often joked that I’m 97% unproductive. While this means I better be damn productive the other 3% of the time, it also means exercising patience often and waiting for great opportunities.” Brian Spector

“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.”  Warren Buffett

“My mantra has always been like that of Milwaukee Braves pitcher Lew Burdette, who once said “I earn my living from the hungriness of the hitters.”  I earn my living from the hungriness of investors, from their decisiveness, their forcefulness, from their great urge for immediacy” Mark Spitznagel

“Phil Carret is about 96 and has been investing for over 70 years.  He has done very well but he is patient.  I’m not as patient as he is but I’d like to last as long” Walter Schloss

Patience is one of the most important virtues for making any value investment.” Jim Tisch

“If you’ve done the numbers and are satisfied with them and the principle is right, you just have

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Forget about the headphone jack for a second.

Sure, it’s pretty annoying that Apple’s newest iPhones — the 7 and 7 Plus, which were unveiled in San Francisco on Wednesday and will start shipping to customers on Sept. 16 — will not include a port for plugging in standard earbuds. But you’ll get used to it.

The absence of a jack is far from the worst shortcoming in Apple’s latest product launch. Instead, it’s a symptom of a deeper issue with the new iPhones, part of a problem that afflicts much of the company’s product lineup: Apple’s aesthetics have grown stale.

Apple has squandered its once-commanding lead in hardware and software design. Though the new iPhones include several new features, including water resistance and upgraded cameras, they look pretty much the same as the old ones. The new Apple Watch does too. And as competitors have borrowed and even begun to surpass Apple’s best designs, what was iconic about the company’s phones, computers, tablets and other products has come to seem generic.

This is a subjective assessment, and it’s one that Apple rebuts. The company says it does not change its designs just for the sake of change; the current iPhone design, which debuted in 2014, has sold hundreds of millions of units, so why mess with success? In a video accompanying the iPhone 7 unveiling on Wednesday, Jonathan Ive, Apple’s design chief, called the device the “most deliberate evolution” of its design vision for the smartphone.

Yet there are signs that my critique of Apple’s designs are shared by others. Industrial designers and tech critics used to swoon over Apple’s latest hardware; nowadays you witness less swooning and more bemusement.

Last year, Apple put out a battery case that looked comically pregnant — “a design embarrassment,” said The Verge — and a rechargeable mouse with the charging port on the bottom, meaning you have to turn it over to charge it. And the remote control for Apple TV violated the first rule of TV remote design: Don’t make it symmetrical, so people can figure out which button is which in the dark. (One tip: Put a rubber band on the bottom, so you can quickly figure out which end is up.)

Then there’s software interface design. The Apple Watch, also released last year, looked fine (and some of its wristbands were truly stunning), but its user interface was so puzzling and took so long to learn that Apple was forced to go back to the drawing board. In a new update to be introduced soon, the watch’s interface has been substantially simplified.

IPhone 7 and Wireless Headphones: Analyzing Apple’s Announcements SEPT. 7, 2016

Apple’s iPhone Sales Drop Again, but Services Are a Bright Spot JULY 26, 2016

Samsung to Recall 2.5 Million Galaxy Note 7s Over Battery Fires SEPT. 2, 2016
It’s the same story for Apple Music. After the streaming service was widely panned for its confusing array of options, Apple had to completely redesign it this year.

It’s not just that a few new Apple products have been plagued with design flaws. The bigger problem is an absence of delight. I recently checked in with several tech-pundit friends for their assessment of Apple’s aesthetic choices. “What was the last Apple design that really dazzled you?” I asked.

There was a small chorus of support for the MacBook, the beautifully tiny (if functionally flawed) laptop that Apple released last year. But most respondents were split between the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5 — two daring smartphone designs that were instantly recognized as surpassing anything else on the market.

The iPhone 5, in particular, was a jewel; to me, its flat sides, chamfered edges and remarkable build quality suggested something miraculous, as if Mr. Ive had been divinely inspired in his locked white room. But the iPhone 4 and iPhone 5 were released in 2010 and 2012. If you have to reach back to the last presidential election to find an Apple design that really caught your eye, there’s something amiss.

Apple’s design difficulties prompt two questions: How bad is this problem? And how can Apple solve it?

To the first: It’s not acute, but it is urgent. Despite a slowdown in growth, Apple is still by far the most profitable consumer electronics company in the world. Consumer satisfaction surveys show that customers love its products. And even if the tech cognoscenti no longer rave about Apple’s designs, there’s little sign that their griping has affected sales.

Despite criticism, Apple Music also signed up 17 million subscribers in about a year. Apple doesn’t release sales numbers for the watch, but many analysts believe that sales have been brisk, and customer-satisfaction surveys are through the roof. And the iPhone has proved remarkably durable; as I argued last year, the iPhone’s continuing dominance is the closest bet in tech to a sure thing.

The real danger is in Apple’s long-term reputation. Much of Apple’s brand is built on design and on a sense that everything it delivers is a gift from the vanguard.

Two years ago, the designer Khoi Vinh, a former design director for The New York Times who now works at Adobe, summed up Apple’s design prowess this way: “If there’s a single thread that runs through nearly every piece of Apple hardware, it’s conviction, the sense that its designers believed with every fiber of their being that the form factor they delivered was the result of countless correct choices that, in totality, add up to the best and only choice for giving shape to that particular product.”

But in assessing the iPhone 6, then new, Mr. Vinh felt Apple had gone astray. Whereas the iPhone 5 had sharp, sophisticated lines that set it apart from everything else, “the iPhone 6’s form seems uninspired, harkening back to the dated-looking forms of the original iPhone, and barely managing to distinguish itself from the countless other phones that have since aped that look,” he wrote.

That was in 2014. Now, two years later, we still have the same basic iPhone design. For years, Apple has released a redesigned iPhone every other year, but now we’re going to go three years without a new iPhone look.

And while Apple has slowed its design cadence, its rivals have sped up. Last year Samsung remade its lineup of Galaxy smartphones in a new glass-and-metal design that looked practically identical to the iPhone. Then it went further. Over the course of a few months, Samsung put out several design refinements, culminating in the Note 7, a big phone that has been universally praised by critics. With its curved sides and edge-to-edge display, the Note 7 pulls off a neat trick: Though it is physically smaller than Apple’s big phone, it actually has a larger screen. So thanks to clever design, you get more from a smaller thing — exactly the sort of advance we once looked to Apple for.

An important caveat: Samsung’s software is still bloated, and its reputation for overall build quality took a hit when it announced last week that it would recall and replace the Note 7 because of a battery defect that caused spontaneous explosions. To the extent that making a device that doesn’t explode suggests design expertise, Apple is still ahead of Samsung.

But the setbacks from Apple’s rivals aren’t likely to last. Apple can’t afford to rest on its past successes for long.

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US stocks are more or less, back to their starting point prior to Brexit.

Clearly, no-one actually has any idea what will happen and what effect that will eventually have. So stocks are probably going to fluctuate in a sideways range until some form of consensus is formed.

This, if correct, opens up a number of trading strategies that are effective in sideways markets. The increased volatility, if it remains, is obviously going to be an issue, but is potentially manageable.

Obviously in this market, one needs to remain extremely flexible, as positions are likely to be very vulnerable to news flow over the next few days certainly and likely couple of weeks.

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The stocks, AAPL and GOOG are not really trading with the S&P500. Makes any short term trade in these two stocks a bit more risky. So for the moment…do nothing.

*GOOG looks to be ready for a break higher.

*Ok, just placed a trade in GOOG to move higher in the next 5mins. These trades are always a guestimate of ‘time’ in very short time frames.

*Already the trade is struggling a little. It needs a little burst higher here, that only needs to last a minute or two. But it’s not looking good.

*Trade was a winner! But only by $0.11, which in GOOG, is cutting it pretty fine.

Snoopy-Typing-Away-1-CVV14J0D95-1024x768

Interesting stock. Very profitable and 9% dividend. Nice chart to open a long position.

chart

Snoopy-Typing-Away-1-CVV14J0D95-1024x768

I’ve held this one a long time. To date a disappointment. Possibly the start of something better.

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