portfolio balances


I am to a certain extent talking my book here, as I hold US Steel at various prices between my initial purchase price of $42 odd, and my last purchase price of $18.21. Currently, my holdings, are down 35%. While I am not exactly joyful at this, neither am I overly concerned. I will trade my position, and I will turn this into a profitable position. It may take a little while I grant you, but it will happen. Generally US Steel is a pretty volatile stock, it has been pretty quiet as of late, but, that mat be changing.

Divergence. If there is any technical indicator that I love to trade, this is it. Divergences tend to turn out really well. I will be in this stock a while, but, I’m looking for a run to start my climb out of the basement.

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From the closing of all portfolio positions yesterday. There are some interesting outcomes. It would have actually been easier and more profitable to simply buy SPY.

The Managed Funds for example PIV performed particularly badly, a bit of a surprise considering they are Value Line stockpicks according to their methodology.

Also the thesis on oil was correct. Buying the major oil company however was absolutely the wrong way to play oil. You would have been better to buy the futures.

Dividends played a huge part in bumping the returns. Always worth remembering. Historically this has also been the case.

Name..Date………..Price……….Closed Price…..%Return
FXY……………………………………………………………………+32%
NHI..3/3/08……..$29.95………..$33.40………….+11.5%
PIV..3/4/08……..$14.81…….….$10.90………….[-26%]
BWP.15/4/08…….$24.03……….$28.03………….+16.6%
PCF…21/4/08……..$7.76………..$6.80………….[-12%]
CST.28/4/08……..$2.35………..$3.95…………..+68%
FNM.8/9/08……..$0.01………….$1.00…………..+100%
COP.7/11/08….$51.03………….$53.51…………+4.8%
MOO..18/11/08…$25.03……….$43.52…………+73.7%
BRK.b.19/11/08….$2684……….$3481……………..+30%
UNG…06/08/09…$13.35……….$9.20…………..[-31%]

Total……………………………………………….………..+22.3%
Dividends…………………………………………………..+13.0%
Total…………………………………………………………+35.3%

snoopytyping_800x600

Just a quick update on the portfolio positions.

Name..Date………..Price……….Current Price…..%Return
FXY……………………………………………………………………+32%
NHI..3/3/08……..$29.95………..$31.90……………..+3.2%
PIV..3/4/08……..$14.81…….….$10.28……………..-30%
BWP.15/4/08…….$24.03……….$23.40…………….-2.6%
PCF…21/4/08……..$7.76………..$6.67……………..-14%
CST.28/4/08……..$2.35………..$3.14………………+33%
FNM.8/9/08……..$0.01…………$0.78………………+25%
COP.7/11/08….$51.03………….$44.05……………-13.6%
MOO..18/11/08…$25.03………$38.48……………+53%
BRK.b.19/11/08….$2684……….$3485……………..+30%
UNG…06/08/09…$13.35………$13.35………..…….0.00%

Total………………………………………………………..+10.5%
Dividends…………………………………………………..+6.9%
Total……………………………………………………….+17.4%

snoopytyping_800x60072

Name..Date………..Price……….#shares…………Cash……Current Price…..%Return
FXY..8/8/07…….$84.78…………83…………$2963.26……..$109.72……+29%
NHI..3/3/08……..$29.95……….170………..$4908.50…….$27.15…….-9%
PIV..3/4/08……..$14.81……….586………..$1318.50…….$10.01…….-32%
BWP.15/4/08…….$24.03……….290………..$3031.30…….$18.00……-25%
PCF…21/4/08……..$7.76………..2100………$3704.00……..$5.18……-33%
CST.28/4/08……..$2.35………..2100……….$5065.00…….$1.75…….-25%
FNM.8/9/08……..$0.01………..820………..…$3089.8……..$0.72…….+19%
COP.7/11/08….$51.03……….50……………$3448………….$51.78……..+1%
MOO..18/11/08…$25.03…..100………..$2497……..$27.87………….+11.3%
BRK.b.19/11/08….$2684……….1……..$3316.0…….$3013……………+12%
UNG…06/08/09…$13.35…..374……$5000.0……$13.35………….0.00

Capital……………………………………………………………………….……-5.17%
Dividends…………………………………………………………………………+3.42%

Total……………………………………………………………………………….-1.75%

Comments
Dividends have gone a long way to mitigating the “total return” or current loss of the portfolio. Maintaining a cash position, and buying only gradually partial positions has also mitigated the losses on total positions.

Being a longer term strategy, time will tell whether “ultimately” this strategy turns into a winning proposition.

snoopytyping_800x60024

Name..Date………..Price……….#shares…………Cash……Current Price…..%Return + Divs.
FXY..8/8/07…….$84.78…………83…………$2963.26……..$104.33……………+65%
NHI..3/3/08……..$29.95……….170………..$4908.50…….$20.06…………….-30% + 9.2%
PIV..3/4/08……..$14.81……….586………..$1318.50…….$8.70……………..-41%
BWP.15/4/08…….$24.03……….290………..$3031.30…….$18.95…………….-21% + 8.8%
PCF…21/4/08……..$7.76………..2100………$3704.00……..$4.84……………..-37% + 9.2%
CST.28/4/08……..$2.35………..2100……….$5065.00…….$2.01……………..-14%
FNM.8/9/08……..$0.01………..820………..…$3089.8……..$0.37………………+44%
COP.7/11/08….$51.03……….50……………$3448………….$45.10…………….-11% + 3.6%
MOO..18/11/08…$25.03…..100………..$2497……..$21.56…………….-13%
BRK.b.19/11/08….$2684……….1……..$3316.0……………………….0.0%

Capital………………………………………………………………………………-6.88%
Dividends……………………………………………………………………………+3.42
Cash…………………………………………………………………………………+2.0%
Total………………………………………………………………………………..-1.46%

There are a few discrepancies that I will correct on the next update, but it provides a pretty close reflection of what has happened during a pretty severe bear market to date.

Name………..Date………..Price……….#shares…………Cash……Current Price……%change
FXY………….8/8/07…….$84.78…………83…………$2963.26…….$94.65…………+11.6%
NHI………….3/3/08……..$29.95……….170………..$4908.50…….$31.00…………+3.5%
PIV………….3/4/08……..$16.10……….435………..$2996.50…….$17.24…………+7.0%
BWP……….15/4/08…….$24.03……….290………..$3031.30…….$26.74…………+11.3%
PCF……….21/4/08……..$7.76………..2100………$3704.00……..$8.12………….+4.6%
CST………28/4/08……..$2.35………..2100……….$5065.00…….$2.84………….+21.4%
FNM……..8/9/08……..$1.22………..820…………$3089.8………$1.18…………..+100%

snoopytyping_800x6004.jpg

Name………..Date………..Price……….#shares…………Value…………Cash
FXY………….8/8/07…….$84.78…………83………..$7036.74……$2963.26
NHI………….3/3/08……..$29.95……….170………..$5091.50……$4908.50
PIV………….3/4/08……..$16.10……….435………..$7003.50……$2996.50
BWP……….15/4/08…….$24.03……….290………..$6968.70……$3031.30
PCF……….21/4/08……..$7.76………..2100………$16,296.00….$3704.00
CST………28/4/08……..$2.35………..2100……….$4935.00……$5065.00