December 2015

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

But the second and biggest trigger I’ve been warning about is China’s unprecedented real estate bubble collapsing …

Recall the Japanese at the top of their stock and real estate bubble in 1989. They were buying real estate hand-over-fist, from Pebble Beach to Rockefeller Center to London. Then, after bidding them up, they ended up selling those holdings at big losses.

The Chinese make the Japanese look prudent!

Chinese buyers are bidding up the high end of the top coastal cities in English-speaking countries like they’ll never go down and like they can’t get enough.

We’re talking Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Auckland, Singapore, San Francisco, L.A., Vancouver, Toronto, New York, London …

These markets are considered “Teflon-proof.” They’re not! In fact, they’re some of the greatest bubbles that exist today. China’s leading cities — like Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen — are up 700% or more since 2000!

Guess what happens when the bubble wealth in real estate that has built up in China finally collapses?

So does the capacity of the more affluent Chinese to buy real estate around the world. And these are the guys who have by-and-large been driving this global real estate bubble at the margin on the high end!

Bear in mind that Chinese real estate has been slowing and prices falling for over a year. That is precisely why China’s stock market bubbled up 160% in less than one year. When Chinese investors realized they could no longer make easy money in the real estate bubble, they turned to stocks. And after the dumb money piled in, the Shanghai Composite stock index fell 42% in just 2.5 months!

What did the Chinese government do? What any government in denial would do — buy its own stock market with hundreds of billions of dollars! That’s what the U.S. government did when its stock market crashed in late 1929. And sure enough, China’s stocks are following the same pattern to a tee:



Screen Shot 2015-12-24 at 6.00.37 AM

So, nicely within range. With Christmas upon us [and closed markets] I’ll just let these run to expiry and [hopefully] save the brokerage costs. They expire next week.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-22 at 6.37.32 AM

Trade placed. Need a range of $116/$142. I’m thinking earnings will have a positive effect on the stock, but a negative report could tank the stock through the gap. Therefore, this is a safety first trade.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 7.19.15 AM

Nike report earnings after the market closes Tuesday. Will place a trade on Monday [US time] for these earnings.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-18 at 6.33.08 AM

The first on the list is FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX), whose shares have opened nearly 4% higher on the back of the company posting its financial results for the second quarter of its fiscal 2016. For the quarter ended November 30, FedEx reported revenue of $12.5 billion, up by 4.7% year-on-year, while its earnings advanced by an annual 20.6% to $2.58 per share. Moreover, both exceeded the analysts’ EPS and revenue estimates by $0.07 and $50 million, respectively. However, the company has registered declines in two segments. The Express segment revenue plummeted by 6% on the year to $6.59 billion, while the freight segment revenue fell by 2% to $1.55 billion in the trimester. Nonetheless, the ground segment revenue surged by 32% to $4.05 billion. For fiscal 2016, the company forecasts EPS in the range of $10.40 to $10.90 in range with the Street’s expectations of $10.52.

Traded outside my bounds initially, but then back inside. Can’t close the trade just yet, might have to wait until tomorrow.

Obviously a strong market is another factor [risk] to take into account.

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM


Screen Shot 2015-12-17 at 6.23.08 AM

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

FDX reports after the market close. Market trading higher currently. I think earnings trades that are before the market open actually work better than the after market closes trades.

I’ll have to go back and check to see if that is actually the case, or simply a prejudice.




Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 6.47.12 AM

Need it to fall between $155/$135

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 6.29.16 AM.png