October 2013


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The data is being released every other day or so and will be current probably by this weekend hopefully.

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einstein

As much as I agree generally with the quote, in the market, it is very dangerous.

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Just surfing around blogoland the general concensus would seem to be that the bull market continues, but it is not loved.

The thing is; what else is there? Inflation is present and the PV of money is eroding. Markets rising to new nominal highs offset that erosion, so investors stay long. Bonds are showing close to negative real returns, why would you want to be in them? Commodities are treading water. I quite like commodities, but accept that it will take some significant time to pay off. With the world in recession and relying on credit expansion for the tepid growth, commodities are a long game.

Short term trading, which would be for positions of about a year, should embrace market neutral strategies. These protect you against the unforeseen disaster and allow you to participate more confidently in the bull move. It avoids the necessity of having and justifying a market outlook based on anything, fundamentals, politics, or squiggles on a chart.

Longer term [long only] strategies require you to buy and sell and obviously require ‘timing’ decisions. You need some form of decision model that you will emotionally adhere to, to plan these buy/sell decisions.

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The COT data from 8 October has now been released.

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The COT data is the old data from October 1. So, again, no current data is available.

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guidance1024

Earnings, despite the new highs, are not optimistic currently.

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peanuts

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