flip-flop-fly


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flippe-floppe is having a retched time of it currently.

The majority of my holdings are in 4 stocks: WDAY, FEYE, SPLK and YELP. I bought them because they were growing their revenues (LOL) and were winners, led by fantastic management teams. All of that means absolutely nothing today, as this basket of hell, death and aids netted me losses in excess of 10% (that’s right, 10%…for the day). I am beyond words. This is more than what I signed up for and ponder to myself the very meaning of life.

As a general rule, I sell after 10% losses. This time around, I rode these stocks straight down the toilet bowl and now swim with them in the raw sewage, with the rats and alligators.

Which we know to be untrue. Think MaVIS and any other collection of stocks that declined 50%, 80% etc. The difference this time is that he’s been caught with a concentrated number of stocks and they have all crashed.

An example

feye

I am going to make this short and to the point, since the majority of my recent blogs have been long winded, bloated, crap pieces.

1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2014.

Which one of those doesn’t belong?

Each and every big market pullback was based around a reason, whether it be a stupid reason or a real one like in 2008. But at least there was a reason for the collapse, whether it be LTCM liquidation, Asian Contagion, Dot com bust, 9/11, Credit Crisis, Euro Scare etc.

Is that a true analysis? This market has been fueled on a sea of QE money since early 2009. That money has been reduced, and with Yellen, likely to be reduced further.

In artificial markets you get artificial effects, good and bad. Currently poster stocks [former], are on the end of an exaggerated pullback. As flippe-floppe intimates…it ends when it ends.

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My main man

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LEVERAGING UP
By The Fly – Mon Jul 1, 2013 12:29pm
I leveraged by 20%, buying up shares of AMBA and SHLD. I am now 120% long, into the polestar of this rally.

Obviously, I do not think the rally is done, because it is a ‘good’ one, in the traditional sense. Small fries like Fly jr and other underlings on this site have been readily dispatched to fag boxes and thrust into the oblivion, amidst empty space, black–nothing.

As I type, the market has traded through some moving averages, but, not through, and then a re-test, and finally higher, which is the pattern that I would look for before ‘leveraging’ the account.

While I agree that on the surface nothing has changed, underneath, to story is different. Before sounding the all clear, I would want some confirmation.

The difficulty is, if you missed the rally, and you have been waiting to get in, this dip is an attractive one to buy, assuming the dip-is-done.

10yr

This chart does not look like lower yields. That of course could change. Until it does, buying stocks becomes a bounce trade. If yields start to rise again, watch stocks collapse.

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I haven’t really had time to pay too much attention to flippe-floppe-flye. Where does he sit currently?

Now, it isn’t always the case, but typically when the mob is leaning one way, the exact opposite is about to happen. Too many of you misread the signals by what is stated on this blog, penned by an eccentric, professional money manager with almost two decades of success. What I am pointing to, rather, is overwhelming bearishness in a particular sector, like social media 6 months ago, Apple right now and gold after yesterday’s close.

The pattern keeps repeating itself and it’s always hard to bet the other way.

I don’t mean to tout my algorithms again; but it was built for this very thing: mean reversion. When the crowd is too bullish or bearish, the algos pick up on it and register overbought/oversold signals. The system weeds out the weak signals and pronounces the ones to pay attention to.

The ppt must have finally got one right. The bounce is no big deal, that was pretty much always on the cards.

More to the point is this: is the bounce the buy-the-dip opportunity [passed by], or, is this just a bounce that offers the chance to sell-the-rip?

I’ll have an opinion after I crunch the numbers on the COT. They forecast correctly, a buy the dip trade. Are they back on song? I’m not too sure, but after crunching the numbers I’ll have a better idea.

At the moment, just watching the market trade, I’m leaning with the bears. I have nothing that anyone else already has, it’s just a feeling.

Where does flippe-floppe stand? Who knows, he changes every post. All that really interests him is having the latest post in alignment with the market so that he can sell a few more subscriptions.

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I just can’t get over the fact that my FRO got shaved for a quick 70 cents inside of a week. I knew I should’ve sold some. But I am going ‘full maniac’ on this one, even though (and this is a very important though) I haven’t any formal expertise in the shipping industry. I don’t even know how to tie a bowen knot, let alone be onboard a shipping vessel and not throw up on someone’s face.

I guess he means ‘bowline’ but no matter. Again, and again, flippe-floppe enters trades without any [seeming] strategy or risk management.

I like to believe my intuition and experience count for something, when making bold decisions. The truth of the matter is, the market doesn’t wait for logic. My rationale might be spot on– but is the time frame? We shall see inside of a year.

ROFL

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My style of trade is not conducive with day trading, even though I can do it as good as anyone. But I need to take down big positions in liquid stocks, which is hard to do in a stock that’s gapping higher within a 2 hour window.

My main man!

It doesn’t feel good having one’s $FRO deflated like this, long 1.2 million shares into what appears to be a death spiral. Clearly, the market is testing my resolve here, as I do not need to hold the shares any longer, being up in the high 20% range for the year.

But old chap, that’s your style, build this fantasy return through little trades that no-one can actually track, claiming on aggregate this great return, start to believe your own hype, enter a big public trade that goes hideously wrong, and make these sorts of claims.

With the types of draw downs that I endure on a monthly basis, it should come as no surprise as to why I do not manage a fund and instead have opted for an advisory role. People who toss money into funds do not like beta and I certainly bring a lot of that, along with the alpha.

Advisory role. Who would actually listen? Really, anyone with serious money, jumping in/out of mostly stupid ideas/stocks without any plan or risk management?

The whole concept is ludicrous.

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May 25, 2013 at 1:19 pm e
“Jerry has an argument up for lower gasoline prices.”

-No, no I didn’t, please re-read the post.

Jerry, err, yes you did:

One other thing to watch for is oil (both brent and crude) for a signal. Personally, I have a feeling we can see a break to the downside because:

“An argument for deflation based on what? $85 billion/month Federal Reserve QE purchases? BoJ QE? ECB QE?”

-Yes, cuz that bet has been proven to be correct, amiright?

Are you right in what context: [i] there is no inflation or, [ii] betting on inflation was the right bet?

Let’s start with the easy, non-contentious statement, viz, that betting on inflation was the correct bet. Clearly this is the case as the stock market has risen 2009 to date.

With regard to ‘inflation itself, I can dispose of this argument using the Fed statistics which are conservative.

fredgraph

Which is a 2.35% compounded rate of inflation. Or, saying the same thing, total inflation from January 2009 to January 2013 is 9.06%

“That is a tortured H&S pattern. ”

-No, no it isnt. You didn’t even take a look at the CHART I LINKED to that shows the H+S pattern.

original_13754533

True, that is a nice clear H&S pattern.

“Further, the US is entering the summer. Summer in the US see’s higher petrol useage traditionally. ”

-Traditionally maybe. But laltely? NO. Gas prices (remember, I am talking about the commodity, so retail might be a little different) peaked in Q1 in both 2011 and 2012 (and seems like this year as well).

us_miles

There are of course many ways to interpret this chart. However to be fair, mileage currently is less than the peak. However, that is only part of the analysis. Petrol refining capacity worldwide is reducing, thus supply is contracting, with a given US demand, that will create higher prices.

“Another technical perspective:”

-LOL. That’s not TA bruh. You cant just post a chart and called it technical analysis.

Of course I can. I of course feel that the interpretation is self-evident on a price analysis basis, viz, lower prices have been consistently rejected [or bought]. Technicals are voodoo or a coin flip anyway.

Try again man, you almost had a pretty bad argument as opposed to a hilarious one full of flaws.

I appreciate the second chance, very generous of you.

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