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A disruption leading to better things? Or the beginning of the end?

Predicting the future is always fraught with problems and mostly, turns out to be wrong.

Science fiction, which I have always enjoyed reading, has a pretty good track record, as good as anything else, in identifying the future. There have been a number of writers that have dealt with Robots: Asimov and Herbert. The first is quite positive, the latter, not. Film has seen the ‘Terminator’ series, again, dystopian.

However I think an examination of history demonstrates that in the ‘short-run’, any new disrupting technology is painful to a group [the displaced/disrupted group] and their livelihoods are shattered.

Over time, the new technology is a positive.

Looking at the list of jobs that will be disrupted/displaced/replaced, that pain is going to be widespread. That in of itself is a little different. Is it enough of a ‘difference’ to be material? Not sure.

In the ‘long run’, the important question is whether robots are run on a software program or whether they run on a true artificial intelligence (“AI”). The difference is material. An AI robot will have 150 x your intelligence. Is something that much more intelligent than you, going to be subservient to you? I doubt it….when was the last time you took orders from your goldfish?