The combined surge of both visible and “shadow” leverage suggests that investors have once again thrown caution to the wind. While margin debt is NOT a leading indicator of future declines, it is the fuel that magnifies the inevitable reversion as forced liquidation occurs.
So the questions and answers that are currently being debated are valid, but the issue is not really whether there is a ‘top’ forming or not. The question is: if there is a bust [bear], how big [deep] will the drawdown be in the market and do you have a strategy that will see you through the blow-out?
The 2008 bear was pretty brutal and pretty much everything dropped far further than anyone expected.
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