Today’s jobs report isn’t looking like it can prevent a rate hike. That means investors are closing out the week with more head-scratching about the “Trump trade.”
The big question is whether it’s back into the cage for those animal spiritsunleashed by The Donald’s election win. Maybe the wild rumpus is just getting started, suggests Josh Brown.
“If this sort of thing extends beyond the speculators in the stock market into the actual C-suites where spending and investment decisions are made, then it becomes self-fulfilling and it could actually work,” Brown writes over at his Reformed Broker blog. “If it doesn’t, well then at least we’ll have some fun in the meantime.”
Count Jeff Gundlach among those arguing that the party is over. He provides our call of the day.
“The dollar is going to go down, yields have peaked and will move sideways, stocks have peaked as well, and gold is going to go up in the short term,” the DoubleLine Capital CEO says in an interview with Reuters. “It is so late to be buying the Trump trade.”
Gundlach, who voted for Trump and predicted the GOP nominee would win, says people are expecting too much, after earlier being too gloomy.
“People were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression — and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz,” the star manager says, adding that “there’s no magic here.”
Gundlach is known for savvy calls, but the “bond king” doesn’t always nail it. He predicted in mid-November that the 10-year Treasury yieldTMUBMUSD10Y, +0.16% would not move above 2.35%, but it has hovered around 2.45% this week.
Staying on the topic of the president-elect’s effect on markets, our chart of the day shows how one of the friskiest Trump trades just lost 75% of its post-election gain.
Futures for the Dow YMZ6, +0.04% , S&P 500 ESZ6, +0.06% and Nasdaq-100NQZ6, +0.06% are dipping, as the Dow DJIA, +0.18% eyes a small weekly gain after another record close yesterday. The S&P SPX, +0.34% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.45% , on the other hand, are on track for weekly drops of roughly 1% and 3%, respectively.
Oil prices CLF7, -0.22% are giving up a little bit of their OPEC-fueled gains, while Europe SXXP, +0.97% is significantly lower as investors worry about Italy’s referendum on Sunday. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.
The chart above shows how one key biotech ETF IBB, +0.89% has knifed below its 200-day moving average, a level that it had been living above since the day after Election Day. This ETF was up 12% from its Nov. 8 close as of mid-November, but it’s up just 3% as of Thursday’s close.
This can’t be helping: Allergan’s AGN, -0.13% CEO argued yesterday that Trump’s election won’t take the focus off high drug prices.