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Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College tie 269 votes for each candidate 0.4%
Recount At least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 3.6%
Clinton wins popular vote 83.5%
Trump wins popular vote 16.4%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 4.2%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.7%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 5.5%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 40.9%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 3.4%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 34.5%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 1.8%
Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.1%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 87.4%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 65.6%
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