The jobs data is ugly and it doesn’t look like a one off. Rather, it looks as if it has been weakening since 2015.
Fed rate hikes are off the table.
With a Presidential election looming, the economy, should become the talking point. Neither candidate actually has a clue, but that has never really mattered. It is the candidate that comes up with the best sound bite that will carry the day.
Trump represents [I think] the most populous demographic, although, he has likely alienated a significant number of that lower income demographic, who will suffer in a recession and vote for a change.
Of course, the Fed is now pretty much out of ideas when it comes to the economy. Yellen simply has no idea what to do. Their favourite [and only] response of the last 40yrs, lowering interest rates, has, as it always had to eventually, failed.
Fiscal policy is usually hot on the heels of monetary policy. Fiscal policy, if it comes, will not eventuate until after the election, so sometime in January 2017 by the time the incumbent recovers from the process.
Fiscal policy is essentially welfare dressed up. Who actually pays…well everyone, as, the government simply creates more money, as they have done with monetary policy, but give it to a different demographic, a redistributive policy. It will succeed for a while. At some point however, a failing private sector, that generates real wealth, not printed paper inflation, must spark and fire up. If it doesn’t, then we’ll be looking at the same issues again, but just bigger, down the road.
With robots eating the unskilled workers’ lunch, what exactly are they going to do in the short-term? In the long-term, looking back from history, the answer will be known. But the issue is more-or-less today.
I have no idea what the answer is for the aggregate.