Seems to have turned bearish. The last few days have been red days in the markets and that seems to have turned much of the commentary very negative again.
Top of the list again seems to be oil, China, negative interest rates and poor guidance forward, European & Chinese banks with high default rates leading contenders for the why.
The question is still however: with so much surplus cash looking to earn a return, where does it go?
Likely, still into financial markets.
Any sign of a bottoming process?
I would say too early still. Longer term I am still a bull, after all in a fiat money environment, which won’t change until possibly it has to, stocks, as productive assets holding productive capital, will appreciate, if only to protect against inflation.
It is the volatility, or market fluctuations that push individuals out of markets, or encourage hyperactive trading.
Some form of mechanical system is the way to go. It keeps you engaged in the markets and keeps you in the market. The system must [obviously] have a bear component to it, other wise it suffers from the same flaw.
While it would be nice to be able to trade the absolute bottoms and tops, pretty unrealistic. The system has to be robust enough to ride out downturns and the volatility that is thereby engendered.