Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 4.55.47 PM

I haven’t had much time to write about economic theory in a couple of years, but this snippet is worth a response.

“People work in order to convert their time into a unit of account,” he said. “We call that money, and it’s an invention that allows us to store time.” Most people have stored little or none. So when they receive money, they quickly purchase necessities; food, shelter, health care. “People who are able to save money inevitably purchase real estate, stocks, bonds – all of which are alternative vehicles for storing time.” One share of Google stores 30 hours of work for the average American, or 30 minutes of copying-and-pasting formation documents for the average hedge fund attorney. “Bill Gates has stored enough time to fund a 1bln person army for 20 years.”

As the gulf between people’s income has grown, the amount of stored time has accumulated in fewer hands. “Wealthy people convert their hours into financial assets so that they can accumulate excess hours relative to their fellow man. But the average worker is simply thinking how to exchange hours for dollars and then exchange those for food.” Central banks face a different problem altogether. They need to get people who’ve saved time to exchange it for something other than clever inventions that store it. They’ve largely failed. So now, everything that stores time is extremely expensive and offers little or negative return, while the pace of economic activity slows. “The problem that we face now is that there is simply too much time that’s been saved. Another way of saying it is that there’s too much capital in the world, in too few hands.”

To restart the system, capital needs to exchange hands or be destroyed, spurring people to rebuild their store of time, rather than just save it. “It is an elemental truth that at some point, through inflation, war, or confiscation and redistribution, this imbalance will correct, and the system will then restart.”

The quote addresses ‘time preferences’. It addresses the choices available to any individual who is involved in an exchange of property rights. This is only addressed tangentially. Property rights are exchanged and stored as ‘money’. This rather begs the question, what exactly is money?

An individual can: [i] exchange money directly, [ii] hold money as cash, [iii] save [invest] money. These are all time preferences.

Investing requires free market interest rates. We do not currently have these as the Central Banks around to world seek to hold nominal interest rates low. There is still however the ‘natural rate of interest’.

In paragraph three, the author asserts that capital needs to be destroyed or change hands. Capital will likely be destroyed, but these are mal-investments.

Mal-investments  are predicated by artificially low nominal interest rates, which, we currently have and have had for quite some time, since the late 1980’s when Greenspan took over the Fed Chair.

Currently we are reaching the end game of artificial rates.

Of course should ZIRP/NIRP end, all business that exists because of these artificial rates, the mal-investments, will likely collapse, which is the destruction of capital that the author refers to.

This would almost certainly lead to a major bear market, which is the bear case. We saw a taste of it in 2008. The unemployment shot through the roof. There are not many ‘depression proof’ industries, the pain is felt everywhere.

Currently, the next internet/housing bubble is most apparent in social media, which relies on advertising revenue for almost 100% of its revenues. This is a problem and is a major destination of current mal-investments.