Apparently there is nothing that cannot happen today.
Mark Twain

The COT index comes in this week at +25.2%. The [predicted] run of higher readings continues and should hold for another three weeks, thus holding the trend [from the bounce] higher.

Technical Picture

The 10day chart has lost its cogency, and has fallen out of the analysis picture this week. The 20day chart indicates that we are closing to an area of resistance. This is at the $170.oo level, and could possibly overturn the bullish advance that has characterised the bounce out of the lows.

The 5day chart however is currently indicating a correction through time. It has plenty of space above to allow higher prices. This correlates to the 6mth chart that shows us hitting resistance, but, simply a temporary resistance, as prices are trending higher.

With a strong COT number and technicals that can support a bull argument, I will be continuing to hold a very slight bullish bias into next week. If price retreats, and that should not be a surprise, this is technically a “buy the dip” opportunity as we should have COT buying support for the next three weeks and the technical picture should resolve into a bull trend.


The Dow Jones is replacing AA, HPQ, and BAC. Two of these are positions. Their getting kicked out of the Dow might cause some selling pressure, which could well provide an opportunity.

Also Twitter is or rather has announced that it will IPO. This could be bullish for the market although after the FB debacle, maybe not.


The general economy remains lukewarm. There is a lot of chatter across blogoland with regard to the five year anniversary of the financial crisis, in particular that nothing much was accomplished.

I would expect then that as far as macro data is concerned, some will help, some will hinder. There seems no consistency, which, due to the economy being floated on credit creation [again] is hardly surprising. As long as the credit keeps flowing, stocks should act well as inflation hedges.

This week’s Trade,