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China’s urbanization will continue and gradually their economy will develop as Western economies have into increased services. All of this will take time. Currently estimates run at a 70% urbanization figure. I have no idea if this is accurate, but just supposing it is, and say that they are already at about 50%, then that’s another 200 million people +/- that need to move to urban areas.

That is a lot of people and a lot of infrastructure. China I’m sure, like England, like America, will have periods of booms and busts, railway, canal and land bubbles dotted the histories. They came and went. The correct bet was on the outcome of the continuing trend.

China no doubt will have its booms/busts and may well be in one now. However the correct bet, the one with the better probability, is that the trend that started in the early 70’s continues.

If that is so, commodities will remain in a bull market along with the trend in China towards a developing and modernising economy. Commodities can currently be bought at relatively cheap prices. The trade may take a little time to develop, but that’s investing for you.

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