Stocks, commodities are all on a tear upwards due to Federal Reserve liquidity pumping. Green Mountain Coffee, fundamentally speaking, is an abomination, and so over-valued as to be totally ridiculous. However, it has, like other rubbish stocks, been rising in value relentlessly.
If, you want like I do, to short this stock, there are some very real requirements that need to be fulfilled. The main one is a legitimate catalyst: exposure of financial skullduggery is the main one, however loss of trading momentum is another.
Recognition of these, or other catalysts, takes time. They will not necessarily simply appear at some nice round number, say $100/share, they might, but, probably not.
Selling short, for more than return-to-the-median trades is an art form that has pretty much disappeared, possibly due to the Central Bank becoming so involved in fighting bear markets, the general market is another major factor in taking successful short positions. If you are fighting the cyclical or secular trend, you are walking uphill immediately.
January 7, 2010 at 7:12 pm
Duc,
I think it’s losing momentum already.
If you disagree, then what will you be looking for to tell you that momentum is dying out?
It’s very overbought, looks kind of exhausted on both daily and weekly. On the weekly, a bit too soon, but so very close!
January 7, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Kat,
I agree the weekly chart is far superior than the daily, far less noise.
I want to see a fall, followed by the retest, that also fails. Combine that with say missed earnings, or a downgrade, something to make people take a closer look.
All the rubbish is running.
jog on
duc
January 7, 2010 at 10:33 pm
Just to be clear, you still think the stock is going to $100? Why don’t you buy some?
January 8, 2010 at 5:43 am
Act,
Because I want to Short GMCR. When you start to buy long, your short ideas, you create a cognitive dissonance.
jog on
duc
January 8, 2010 at 12:08 pm
Lol. Don’t worry, you seem smart enough to keep priorities in line. The stock seems to have problems going up, ever since I bought it, lol
January 8, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Act,
Silver.
jog on
duc