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Mr Lee, lays it down on his blog. Initially I just thought he was taking the piss, but you know, I think he’s actally serious. Don’t have a hot drink in your hand when you read this.

The Chart Addict says:
July 31, 2009 at 11:03 pm
For the very, very few of you that seem 100% sure of yourself in regards to the direction of the market, this is for you.

Having conviction/confidence is ok. Thinking that you know EXACTLY what will happen, is not. In fact, you sound like a fool to me, unaware of the nature and force of the markets. Even I don’t know what will exactly happen – it’s the uncertainty that make trading so challenging for the majority and the most satisfying when you are correct.

No one knows what will happen for sure. There are forces and events beyond your control (for ex: global macro, forex, government, regulatory, commodity, earnings, etc.). You are wrong to think that the markets are in your control. That’s how traders blow up.

I win a lot, yes. However, I remain humble knowing that the markets cannot be tamed. I win because I choose my trades carefully and take the right actions to maneuver my way through the complexity of this interconnected multitude of traders full of emotions. When there is one side, there is another. You have to stop and think about what the other side is thinking. Surely there’s got to be a good reason why they are ‘betting against you’.

When I trade, I am constantly thinking about what could go wrong since that risk is present in every trade. I suggest that you keep your minds open for any and every possibility that could arise, most notably the ones that can fuck you up.

If you were so sure of yourself, why not 1) use 100% cash, 2) fully margin yourself, 3) take out a bank loan, 4) max our your credit cards, 5) etc, and place a huge bet that will support your words? You won’t, you know why? Because you are not 100% certain. And since there is no way to verify that you would do such things, don’t even bother mentioning that you did such and such.
In the end, words are meaningless. Your REAL-TIME trades are the only tell.

The next person that is completely sure of him/herself and is completely and entirely wrong, I will ban you. The ’so sure’ mentality is harmful to other traders and it distracts the community with nonsense.

Specifically, Da_bears, you are a new person on my blog. I suggest that you develop a track record on the blog before you make such bold predictions. Since I am a fair person, I will give you a chance to prove yourself. This also goes for the very few that aren’t as vocal.

That is all.

That is all. Classic.

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