Very early days, and quite possibly meaningless, but certainly worth watching…Dr Copper is starting to potentially signal an upturn in economic activity.


We can see that the economic downturn built huge surpluses, that have just started to be drawn down…which has also correlated to the uptick in the stockmarket.


Just a look on a shorter term chart the drawdown of copper, economically very sensitive.

In all the major bottoms of the various Bear markets, 1929-1938, 1969-1975, 1979-1982, commodities stabilised first, with a time lag for the new Bull market to build.

This Bear market, that started in 1998, quietly, and blew up in 2000, bottomed in 2003, and then drove a massive Bear market rally through 2007, collapsing into our current situation and the concurrent Bull market in debt, is set to reverse.

A massive deleveraging, by all and sundry, implies that debt will require higher yields to make it attractive. Equity, or ownership, however, with attendant risks, in a deleveraging environment, becomes more attractive.