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Interest rates for countries running Current Account Deficits will be put at risk in this situation. Specifically New Zealand, who run one of the largest %/GDP CAD.

Record volumes of government bonds from the industrialised nations – intended to reverse what could be the worst recession since the Great Depression – threaten to curb access to credit markets by emerging economies.

Analysts warn that emerging market borrowers could be crowded out of the credit markets by $3,000bn of government bonds expected to be issued by the big developed economies in 2009 – three times more than in 2008. The US alone is expected to issue about $2,000bn next year.

Emerging market governments and corporates need to repay $6,865bn of debt in 2009, according to ING Wholesale Banking. This includes bonds, loans, interest payments and trade finance.

David Spegel, global head of emerging markets strategy at ING, said: “Refinancing risk is going to be one of the biggest problems for emerging market issuers in 2009.

“Sovereign defaults are unlikely, but many companies could face debt restructuring or default.”

Mr Chamie said: “Governments or companies that are highly rated will still be able to attract buyers, but the very large amount of issuance almost certainly means they will have to pay higher interest rates to get those investors.”

Brazil, Russia, India and China face external debt payments of $205bn, $605bn, $257bn and $2,437bn respectively, but can rely on large foreign exchange reserves to help meet bills.

Argentina has $64bn of external debt due in 2009; Turkey has $36bn falling due, ING says.

Countries such as Hungary and Ukraine have already been bailed out by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

bric

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