stocks


I’ve been wanting a cigarette company for a while, RAI, I think fits the bill. It was once the subject of the book “Barbarians at the Gate”

I’ll be running the numbers for possible inclusion into the portfolio.

BUSINESS SUMMARY
Reynolds American, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures cigarettes and other tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes under the CAMEL, KOOL, PALL MALL, DORAL, WINSTON, SALEM, MISTY, and CAPRI brands, as well as under the DUNHILL, STATE EXPRESS 555, and NATURAL AMERICAN SPIRIT brands. The company also manufactures other tobacco products, including little cigars under the WINCHESTER and CAPTAIN BLACK brands; roll-your-own tobacco under the BUGLER brand; and moist snuff under the GRIZZLY and KODIAK brands. In addition, Reynolds American offers loose leaf chewing tobacco, dry snuff, and plug and twist tobacco products. It sells its products through distributors, wholesalers, and other direct customers, including retail chains, as well as distributes cigarettes to public warehouses. The company was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

Inflation is the driver of both Equity and Bond yields. As inflation rises, so must the respective yields to compensate the loss of purchasing power.

Equity valuations are complicated by the fact that their coupons [dividends] are not fixed, and second, that their capital appreciation is in theory unlimited. Hence, we will in individual common stocks at almost all times, and within the index under rare occasions, decouple from the inflation anchor.

I’ve been looking at some of the auto-makers, General Motors, Ford, Toyota for a possible position, as the economy comes out of recession, but the fundamentals are pretty scary.

Auto dealerships, in particular, upper-end car dealerships. This particular stock, might have potential, in addition, it sports a 5.6% dividend.

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5: 552.67M
Enterprise Value (30-Apr-08)3: 1.66B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 9.35
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09) 1: 8.32
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.98
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.10
Price/Book (mrq): 0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.30
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 7.919

France Telecom SA offers its individual customers, businesses and other telecommunications operators a line of services covering fixed and mobile communications, data transmission, the Internet and multimedia, and other added-value services. As of December 31, 2007, the Company provided services to 170.1 million customers. The Company operates three business segments: the Personal Communication Services (PCS) segment, the Home Communication Services (HCS) segment and the Business Communication Services (BCS) segment. The PCS segment consists of the mobile telecommunications services in France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland and Rest of the world. The HCS segment includes the telecommunication fixed-line services in France, Poland and the Rest of the world, as well as the distribution operations and support functions provided to the France Telecom’s other business segments. The BCS segment holds the communication solutions and services dedicated to businesses in France and worldwide.

BUSINESS SUMMARY
Calpine Corporation engages in the generation and sale of electricity and related products and services to wholesale and industrial customers in North America. It offers electricity generated from natural gas-fired combustion and renewable geothermal facilities. The company also operates power plants, geothermal steam fields, wells and well pumps, and gas pipelines. It sells its thermal energy produced by the gas-fired power cogeneration facilities primarily to industrial users. The company markets electricity produced from its generating facilities to utilities and other third party purchasers. As of December 31, 2007, it owned or leased a portfolio of 60 natural gas-fired power plants and 17 geothermal power plants with approximately 24,000 megawatts of generating capacity. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in San Jose, California and has an additional office in Houston, Texas.

Purchased BWP @ $24.03
Check portfolio for details

New Claymore ETF Sheds Some Light On Solar Energy
Written by Heather Bell
Tuesday, 15 April 2008 08:18
Claymore Securities again broke new ground this morning with the launch of the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF. The fund is the first exchange-traded fund to focus exclusively on companies operating in the solar energy space. It is listed on the NYSE Arca exchange under the amusingly memorable ticker “TAN.”

“The availability of this product acknowledges the maturing of the solar energy industry and investor interest in funding solar power development,” said Claymore’s president, Christian Magoon.

Solar energy, long ignored, is now a hot topic as energy costs continue to rise and concerns about the negative effects of fossil fuel use grow. A recent HardAssetsInvestor.com article by Eli Neusner quoted a study that had found that venture capital investment in the solar energy industry grew from $150 million in 2005 to more than $1 billion in 2007. The same article also noted that new legislation could redistribute substantial subsidies to the wind and solar energy industries that had previously been awarded to the oil industry.

Magoon pointed out that all three of the major candidates in the presidential race - John McCain, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton - are concerned about global warming and are supporters of alternative energy. The next administration is likely to be very friendly toward the solar energy industry.

Magoon also cited an interesting statistic in “Profiting From Clean Energy,” a new book by Melvin & Co. Research Director Richard Asplund, that the energy from the sun that reaches the earth in one day could meet the energy needs of the world population for 27 years. Solar energy currently provides less than 1% of global electricity.

“You could see massive 50% or 60% annual growth rates for many years before solar energy would even be at a quarter of the world’s electricity,” Magoon said.

TAN tracks the MAC Global Solar Energy Index, an index of 25 stocks, many of which are pure plays. The index was developed by MAC Indexing LLC which is an affiliate of Melvin & Co, a research firm specializing in clean energy. The index has a strong growth tilt and is more than 75% international, according to Magoon, although eligible components must be listed on a developed exchange. The companies fall mainly into the areas of equipment producers, materials producers and service providers.

Magoon said there are only about 200 publicly traded companies that have interests in solar energy worldwide, so the selection pool is somewhat limited. Nonetheless, the index’s selection and weighting methodologies show a strong preference for pure-play companies, which MAC defines as companies deriving two-thirds or more of their revenues from solar energy. Companies deriving less than one-third of their revenues from solar energy are excluded from the index entirely. Currently, almost all of the components are classified as pure plays. Pure-play companies receive higher weightings within the index, but weightings are further adjusted to ensure the index complies with 1940 Act diversification regulations.

The current component list has a combined market capitalization of $95 billion, ranging in size from $250 million - which is actually the minimum threshold for inclusion - to $18 billion, Magoon said. Large-cap stocks represent 27% of the index, while mid caps have a 29% weighting and small caps have a 42% weighting.

Among the top 10 components are First Solar Inc., Renewable Energy Corp., Suntech Power Holdings Co., and SolarWorld AG. Europe dominates the index, with a 29% weighting for Germany, Norway at 7%, Spain at 4% and Switzerland at 3%. China is 29% of the index, and the U.S. has a weighting of 26%.

Importantly, almost all of the companies are also profitable, belying what Magoon says is a common misconception that the solar energy industry does not make money. In fact, 20 of the index’s components were profitable in 2007.

He added that the companies within the index tend to be fairly volatile and heavily traded. They also face unique risks relating to solar technology and government subsidies. However, their prospects are strong, with demand for materials currently outstripping supply - a further sign of the changing attitudes toward alternative energy.

TAN offers an interesting diversification play in the energy space: Besides spanning a variety of size segments and several countries, it also offers diversification away from the ever-dominant oil industry. Magoon noted that a recent study from Melvin found that there was not much correlation between crude oil prices and solar energy because currently solar energy is used mainly to generate electricity, while much of global oil production is ultimately used for transportation.

“The outputs are used for different things,” Magoon said.

Although Claymore is clearly a first-mover in the space, Van Eck currently has its own solar energy ETF in registration, so TAN may see some competition soon.

TAN charges an expense ratio of 65 basis points.

Top 10 Companies Weight
FIRST SOLAR INC 8.77%
RENEWABLE ENERGY CORP AS 7.45%
Q-CELLS AG 6.44%
SUNTECH POWER HOLDINGS ADR 6.19%
JA SOLAR HOLDINGS CO LTD 5.25%
SOLARWORLD AG 5.24%
SUNPOWER CORP-A 4.95%
LDK SOLAR CO LTD-ADR 4.74%
MEMC ELECTRONIC MATERIALS INC 4.68%
YINGLI GREEN ENERGY - ADR 4.32%

I shall start the analysis by looking at the existing electric generating capacity, and from which source it is powered. This will illustrate the basic demand for the product that is supplied by our business [common stock] which in this case are the pipelines that transport Natural Gas.

Energy Source…………………………………………….. Number of Generators

Coal[1]………………………………………………………….. 1,493
Petroleum[2]……………………………………………………. 3,744
Natural Gas[3]………………………………………………….. 5,470
Other Gases[4]………………………………………………….. 105
Nuclear…………………………………………………………… 104
Hydroelectric Conventional[5]……………………………….. 3,988
Other Renewables[6] ………………………………………….1,823
Pumped Storage……………………………………………….. 150
Other[7] …………………………………………………………..47
Total …………………………………………………………..16,924

Natural Gas generators are the single largest suppliers of electricity.

Future expansion [planned future capacity in megawatts]

Energy Source….. 2007…….. 2008………. 2009…………. 2010 …………….2011
Coal[1]…………. 1,679………. 920 ………12,611……….. 6,839 ……………7,649
Petroleum[2]……. 255………. 1 835……… 50…………….. –
Natural Gas…….. 9,891…….. 12,896…… 11,050 ………..7,569…………… 4,622
Other Gases[3]….. — ………….580 ……….771………….. –……………….. 340
Nuclear…………… — ………….–………… –……………. — ………………….–
Hydroelectric…….13…………… 3…………. 1……………. –…………………. –
Other……………5,714………. 2,032……… 350………… 217………………… 56
Pumped………….–…………… — ………….–………….. –…………………. –
Other[5]………. –…………… — ………….– …………..– ………………….165
Total …………17,552……… 16,432…….. 25,617……. 14,675……………. 12,833

Again, Natural Gas is at the heart of near term future expansion. Thus we can safely imply, at least in the medium term, a demand for pipeline infrastructure.

Therefore, we can proceed to the next stage of the analysis which is an analysis of the individual business [common stock]

Natural Resource Partners L.P. is principally engaged in the business of owning and managing coal properties in the three major coal-producing regions of the United States: Appalachia, the Illinois Basin and the Western United States. As of December 31, 2007, the Company owned or controlled approximately 2.1 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves in 11 states. It does not operate any mines, but leases coal reserves to mine operators under long-term leases that grant the operators the right to mine its coal reserves in exchange for royalty payments. As of December 31, 2007, its coal reserves were subject to 191 leases with 66 lessees. During the year ended December 31, 2007, its lessees produced 57.2 million tons of coal from its properties. It conducts all of its operations in a single segment: the ownership and leasing of mineral properties and related transportation and processing infrastructure.

Another potential investment opportunity.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP owns and operates the business conducted by Boardwalk Pipelines, LP (Boardwalk Pipelines) and its subsidiaries, Texas Gas Transmission, LLC (Texas Gas) and Gulf South Pipeline Company, LP (Gulf South). The Company is engaged in the interstate transportation and storage of natural gas for a mix of customers, including local distribution companies (LDCs), municipalities, interstate and intrastate pipelines, direct industrial users, electric power generation plants, marketers and producers. For the year ended December 31, 2007, approximately 65% of the CompanyGÇÖs revenues were derived from capacity reservation charges under firm contracts. During 2007, the CompanyGÇÖs customer mix comprised LDCs (32%), pipeline interconnects (34%), storage (13%), industrial end users (7%), power plants (6%) and miscellaneous other (8%).

I shall be running the numbers on this one for probable inclusion within the portfolio.

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