psychology


Another article from Brett Steenbarger;

1) We are most likely to behave in inhibited or impulsive ways, violating trading rules and plans, when we perceive events to be threatening;

2) What we perceive to be threatening is a joint function of events themselves and how we think about those events;

3) A key to gaining control over trading and maintaining consistency is to be able to reduce the threat associated with market events and process adverse outcomes in normal, routine ways;

4) We can reduce the threat associated with adverse market events through proper money management (position sizing) and through proper risk management (limits on losses per position);

5) We can reduce the threat associated with adverse market events by training ourselves to respond calmly to adverse outcomes (exposure methods) and by restructuring how we think about those outcomes (cognitive methods);

6) Optimal skill development in trading will occur in non-threatening environments in which learners can sustain concentration, optimism, and motivation;

7) A proper mindset is therefore necessary to the development of trading skills, but does not substitute for such development; 8) The cultivation of trading expertise is a function of the amount of time and effort devoted to learning and the proper structuring of that time and effort;

9) Proper structuring of learning involves the setting of specific, doable, cumulative goals and the provision of rapid feedback and correction regarding the achievement of those goals;

10) Practice does not make perfect in trading or anything else; perfect practice makes perfect. Training must gradually build competencies and correct deficiencies in a manner that sustains a positive mindset and optimal concentration and motivation.

From the New Yorker;

In the current atmosphere of economic tumult, the announcement that Toyota sold a hundred and sixty thousand more cars than General Motors in the first three months of this year might seem like a minor news item. But it may very well signal the end of one of the most remarkable runs in business history. For seventy-seven years, in good times and bad, G.M. has sold more cars annually than any other company in the world. But Toyota has long been the auto industry’s most profitable and innovative firm. And this year it appears likely to become, finally, the industry’s sales leader, too.

Calling Toyota an innovative company may, at first glance, seem a bit odd. Its vehicles are more liked than loved, and it is often attacked for being better at imitation than at invention. Fortune, which typically praises the company effusively, has labelled it “stodgy and bureaucratic.” But if Toyota doesn’t look like an innovative company it’s only because our definition of innovation—cool new products and technological breakthroughs, by Steve Jobs-like visionaries—is far too narrow. Toyota’s innovations, by contrast, have focussed on process rather than on product, on the factory floor rather than on the showroom. That has made those innovations hard to see. But it hasn’t made them any less powerful.

At the core of the company’s success is the Toyota Production System, which took shape in the years after the Second World War, when Japan was literally rebuilding itself, and capital and equipment were hard to come by. A Toyota engineer named Taiichi Ohno turned necessity into virtue, coming up with a system to get as much as possible out of every part, every machine, and every worker. The principles were simple, even obvious—do away with waste, have parts arrive precisely when workers need them, fix problems as soon as they arise. And they weren’t even entirely new—Ohno himself cited Henry Ford and American supermarkets as inspirations. But what Toyota has done, better than any other manufacturing company, is turn principle into practice. In some cases, it has done so with inventions, like the andon cord, which any worker can pull to stop the assembly line if he notices a problem, or kanban, a card system that allows workers to signal when new parts are needed. In other cases, it has done so by reorganizing factory floors and workspaces in order to allow for a freer and easier flow of parts and products. Most innovation focusses on what gets made. Toyota reinvented how things got made, which enabled it to build cars faster and with less labor than American companies.

But there’s an enigma to the Toyota Production System: although the system has been widely copied, Toyota has kept its edge over its competitors. Toyota opens its facilities to tours, and even embarked on a joint venture with G.M. designed, in part, to help G.M. improve its own production system. Over the years, more than three thousand books and articles have analyzed how the company works, and things like andon systems are now common sights on factory floors. The diffusion of Toyota’s concepts has had a real effect; the auto industry as a whole is far more productive than it used to be. So how has Toyota stayed ahead of the pack?

from the issuecartoon banke-mail thisThe answer has a lot to do with another distinctive element of Toyota’s approach: defining innovation as an incremental process, in which the goal is not to make huge, sudden leaps but, rather, to make things better on a daily basis. (The principle is often known by its Japanese name, kaizen—continuous improvement.) Instead of trying to throw long touchdown passes, as it were, Toyota moves down the field by means of short and steady gains. And so it rejects the idea that innovation is the province of an elect few; instead, it’s taken to be an everyday task for which everyone is responsible. According to Matthew E. May, the author of a book about the company called “The Elegant Solution,” Toyota implements a million new ideas a year, and most of them come from ordinary workers. (Japanese companies get a hundred times as many suggestions from their workers as U.S. companies do.) Most of these ideas are small—making parts on a shelf easier to reach, say—and not all of them work. But cumulatively, every day, Toyota knows a little more, and does things a little better, than it did the day before.

The system doesn’t necessarily preclude missteps—in 2006, Toyota ran into a series of quality problems—and it’s possible that the focus on incremental innovation would be less well suited to businesses driven by large technological leaps. But, on the whole, the results are hard to argue with. They’re also phenomenally difficult to duplicate. In part, this is because most companies are still organized in a very top-down manner, and have a hard time handing responsibility to front-line workers. But it’s also because the fundamental ethos of kaizen—slow and steady improvement—runs counter to the way that most companies think about change. Corporations hope that the right concept will turn things around overnight. This is what you might call the crash-diet approach: starve yourself for a few days and you’ll be thin for life. The Toyota approach is more like a regular, sustained diet—less immediately dramatic but, as everyone knows, much harder to sustain. In the nineteen-nineties, a McKinsey study of companies that had put quality-improvement programs in place found that two-thirds abandoned them as failures. Toyota’s innovative methods may seem mundane, but their sheer relentlessness defeats many companies. That’s why Toyota can afford to hide in plain sight: it knows the system is easy to understand but hard to follow. ♦

From Brett Steenbarger;

A deadly pattern among some of the best traders is to channel achievement motivation into trading *more*.

The best traders do have a strong achievement motivation and work quite hard at their craft. That achievement drive makes them hate losing. Their impulse is to go for the jugular; they want to not only achieve, but achieve *more*.

This drive can be a trader’s greatest weakness, however. It can lead to stubborness in taking losses, leading to outsized losses. It can also lead to overtrading, as the driven trader attempts to *make* things happen. That is a particular recipe for disaster on slow, narrow days such as yesterday, when it’s easy to get chopped up jumping aboard seeming trending moves.

The net result is that *pressing* to achieve can take the trader out of his or her game. It subverts risk management by leading the trader to trade too large, without careful attention to stop loss points. It also interferes with decision-making by leading the trader to take trades without an objective edge.

A good analogy is the fighter who goes for the knockout on every punch, leaving himself wide open to jabs and punches from the opponent. When the boxer is *too* aggressive, defensive skills go out the window. So it is with the trader.

Another analogy is the soldier in the battlefield. Too hyped up and too aggressive, he may charge out of his foxhole and make himself an easy target for the enemy. Sometimes the best strategy is to maintain control and pick off the enemy sniper-style.

How can you know if this is a problem for you? If you keep metrics of your trading results, you’ll see that the average size of your losing trades exceeds the average size of the winners. You’ll see that your biggest losing days are ones in which you trade most often and with largest size, particularly when the market was showing no special opportunity. You’ll also know by your state of mind: traders who *press* to win typically experience high degrees of frustration when the profits don’t come quickly.

If these are concerns for you, self-control strategies such as meditation and biofeedback can be tremendously helpful. How to use such strategies will be the focus of my next post.

From the Wall St Journal, the hotties of the week.

Is it worth focusing on this timeframe? [outside of daytraders] Or, is it simply noise? How would you actually differentiate? Once differentiated, how would you trade it?

If you read the last point within Brett Steenbarger’s article, you will read that he believes that markets lead, rather than follow.

Is there a case to be made.
Probably, but I’ll look more closely at some historical turning points.

From Brett Steenbarger;

From working with developing traders, I’d say that 90% don’t/can’t sustain the process of keeping a substantive journal. Among the group that does journal, well over 90% of the entries are about themselves and their P/L. I almost never see journal entries devoted to figuring out markets.

* A sizable proportion of traders who have been having problems are trading methods and patterns that used to work, but are no longer operative. The inability to change with changing markets affects traders intraday (when volume/volatility/trend patterns shift) and over longer time frames (when intermarket patterns shift).

* It’s a common observation that traders fail because they don’t stick to their plans. My experience is different. Traders develop plans and trade patterns that simply don’t work; they’re based on randomness. When the patterns don’t work, traders become frustrated and abandon their plans. So it looks like lack of discipline causes trading failure. But planning doesn’t create success; sound planning does. Sticking to plans based on randomness is no virtue.

* I mentioned in my book an important law of performance: In every performance field of note–from Olympic athletics to Broadway–performers spend more time in practice than in formal performance. That is how expertise develops. The ratio of “practice” time (time spent on markets outside of trading) to trading time is a worthwhile indicator of a trader’s prospective success.

* Among the predictors of trading success, a “passion for trading” is grossly overrated. The successful traders have a passion for markets, which is very different from a passion for trading. Indeed, a passion for trading in the absence of passion for markets is a fair definition of addiction.

* Some traders habitually look for tops in a rising market and bottoms in a falling one. There’s much to be said for countertrend methods, but not when the need to be right exceeds the need to make money.

* An underrated element in trading success is mental flexibility: the ability to shift views and perceptions as new data enter the marketplace. It takes a certain lack of ego to form a strong view and then modify it in the face of new evidence.

* A trader I spoke with recently told me he was going to trade more aggressively by putting on more trades. Trading more frequently is not necessarily trading more aggressively, and it certainly isn’t necessarily trading prudently. Trading more aggressively means allocating more risk capital to particular (sound) trade ideas. A considerable portion of traders would benefit from trading less frequently *and* more aggressively.

* Nice litmus test for any website devoted to trading education, coaching, and the like: If the site spends more time promoting the person than promoting ideas, you have a good sense for the site’s priorities. Caveat emptor.

* Many traders fail because they’re focused on what the market *should* be doing, rather than on what it *is* doing. The stock market leads, not follows, economic fundamentals. Some of the best investment opportunities occur when markets are looking past news, positive or negative.

* Success in trading requires the capacity for personal investment. Too many traders close out their efforts, along with their positions, at the end of the day.

With the reaction to GOOG’s earnings, the market has out-run itself. Thus, if you can stand the volatility and heat in the kitchen, this is an excellent place to start placing short positions [near todays highs] in selective names.

Dow Jones Theory, while not predicting a bull market currently, is certainly not confirming the continuation of the bear market.

So what exactly is the theory calling for?

Now I’m pretty sure he’s not actually referring to my very short post on the Economist cover, however, somewhere in the more mainstream blogosphere, someone must have used the Economist cover as a contrarian indicator [I actually agree that it is a contrary indicator]. Here is his response;

One of the things that people get wrong all the time is the contra meanings of magazine covers. This is a subject we have discussed for quite some time around here.

The assumption is that if something shows up on a mag cover, whatever the subject is must therefore be all over, hence, its time to go the other way. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what the cover indicator is all about.

The short version is that when a long running trend, well represented by consensus opinion and stock prices, finally bubbles up to the front of a major magazine cover, THATS WHEN its very very late in the cycle. Hence, it is a contrary indicator.

A recent classic cover was the Time Magazine on Housing back in the summer of 2005. The timing was near perfect, as Housing peaked in August ‘05. However, when something is relatively new, such as the US economic slowdown (see Economist cover below), it is not a true contrary indicator.

Let’s compare these two examples:

• Housing Boom
- Lasted almost 10 years
- Home prices increased 2 and 3 standard deviations from historical means
- Homebuilder stocks ran 500% to all time highs

• US Economic Slowdown
- Offically going on for less than 6 months; GDP still positive
- S&P 500 and Dow Industrials made all time highs six months ago
- Equities still within 10-15% of highs
- No consensus for a recession

When we compare these two, the differences are pretty obvious as to which one is the true contrary indicator . . .

I actually disagree with his analysis for the following reasons;

*Economic expansions are far longer in terms of time and % gains than are recessions. The reasons for this are Political, Legislative, Fiscal, and Monetary. In essence, the government will always try to facilitate an expansion, even if it is OVEREXPANSION [bubble] and fight to shorten and mitigate any recession. Therefore, even though the timeframe mentioned is 6 months, this in terms of a “Recession” could very well be “late” in the cycle.

*Magazine covers are not touted as “market timing” per se, rather, that the idea has now gone mainstream, and thus it is now in the final stages of the move as the less informed public become aware of the situation. It could of course be argued that “The Economist” is still rather above the average reader, thus not qualifying as mainstream.

*Every recession has been successfully reinflated by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. There is however a time lag of up to 11 months. The time lag with magazine covers, with the “Housing” example used, falls rather neatly into that timeframe. Therefore, once again, it can be argued that in the face of interest rates being aggressively cut, very quickly in the cycle, that this recessionary cycle will be shorter in [time] duration than previous cycles.

*Individual equities are nowhere near their [10%-15%] highs. The overall index may well be, but individual common stocks associated with various problematical areas of the economy have declined some 50%+ at their lows. Thus his statement while correct, shows a lack of penetrating thought.

In conclusion, while the Economist cover will be judged in posterity, the arguments put forward in rebuttal simply do not make the case.

From Brett Steenbarger;

The charts above decompose the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and 10-year Treasury rates ($TNX) into two components: changes that occur from close to open (overnight) and those that occur from open to close (day). For purposes of comparison, the charts are set to an arbitrary index value of 100 on 12/31/04. It doesn’t take much analysis to see that the overnight and day markets behave quite differently. In fact, the correlation between overnight price changes and subsequent day changes is -.05 for SPY and .03 for $TNX. These, in essence, are separate markets.

The top chart illustrates how much of the stock market’s bullish trend since 2005 has been a function of overnight price change. Indeed, a pure daytrader experienced none of the benefits of this bull run. To be sure, overnight exposure brings its risks, but closing positions at day’s end also has greatly dampened reward.

Notice how, for the most part, interest rate changes have been much more pronounced during the day session compared with overnight: swings up and down tend to be larger. A good part of the trending behavior in rates has occurred during the day–at least until recently.

Which gets us to one of the most interesting aspects of this exercise. Until January of this year, much of the drop in stock prices since mid-2007 occurred during the day session. Similarly, much of the fall in interest rates (flight to quality) also occurred during the day. Since January, however, the day behavior of stocks has been relatively muted–as has been the day behavior of rates. Instead, we’ve seen pronounced overnight weakness in both stocks and rates since January.

This shift in regimes may be quite meaningful, reflecting a thematic shift in the markets. Much of the drop in shares and rates from mid-2007 through the January lows was a function of credit fears, whose epicenter has been in the U.S. Since January, however, U.S. stocks and rates have been responding increasingly to global recession fears, weakness in global share prices (across Asia most notably), and preopening economic and earnings reports related to recession.

It’s interesting that the number of common stocks on the NYSE making fresh 52-week lows hit their highest level in January at exactly the time this overnight/day regime shifted. I believe that January low represents a pivotal point at which markets shifted their focus, such that overnight events–and the global economic picture–are now weighing more heavily on stocks.

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