April 26, 2008
I have been a naysayer in the past on this Australian biotech, however, they seem to have turned the corner from speculative start-up to investment grade [not there yet]
There is potential also that they may be subject in the future to an acquisition, as many of the huge behemoth US drug companies are running pretty lean on pipeline.
April 20, 2008
I shall be adding this security to the portfolio on Monday.
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Putnam High Income Securities Fund is a closed-ended balanced mutual fund launched and managed by Putnam Investment Management, LLC. The fund invests in the public equity and fixed income markets of the United States. It makes its investments in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund seeks to invest in high yield convertible securities. For its fixed income portfolio, it looks for convertible, high yield, lower rated securities to make its investments. The fund benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the Merrill Lynch All-Convert. Speculative Index and JP Morgan Dev. High yield Index. It was formerly known as Putnam High Income Bond Fund. Putnam High Income Securities Fund was formed on July 9, 1987 and is domiciled in the United States.
April 11, 2008
Medical REIT’s are an area that potentially are an interesting longer term investment based on some macro-based trends.
This macro-trend [ageing population within US] is positive for medical specialist REIT’s as an increase in the ageing population provide an increased supply and demand dynamic for the medical REIT’s.
One risk associated with REIT structures is the risk of over-supply relative to demand, viz. excessive new building or development. Therefore we should initially examine macro-trends within the industry.
Hospital spending is the strongest within this sector. Medical care and Specialist spending are lower, thus are less likely on current data to move into oversupply. Thus in our search for a potential candidate, this should be a factor taken into account. The first data set differentiates the spending into sectors, the second, while not differentiating the spending, does confirm the general data.
With a favourable macro-picture, we can now look at one potential candidate;
National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) is a real estate investment trust that invests in healthcare properties primarily in the long-term care industry. As of December 31, 2006, NHI had ownership interests in real estate, mortgage and notes receivable investments. These investments include long-term care facilities, acute care hospitals, medical office buildings, retirement centers and assisted living facilities. As of December 31, 2006, the Company had investments in 139 healthcare facilities located in 18 states consisting of 97 long-term care facilities, one acute care hospital, four medical office buildings, 14 assisted living facilities, six retirement centers and 17 residential projects for the developmentally disabled. Of these 139 facilities, 41 are leased to National HealthCare Corporation (NHC). These 41 facilities include four centers subleased to and operated by other companies, the lease payments to NHI being guaranteed by NHC
Capitalization of this common stock has improved with a larger % coming from equity, and the long term debt declining from a 5yr average of $150.7 to currently $113.5. In the current credit environment and generally, this is a positive.
Expenses have increased. This is not really what you want to see. They are reflected primarily in two areas; Cost of Goods, which would be properties purchased, increased by 15% reflecting the high real estate prices and SG&A which is management, increased by 117%.
The increase in property costs [to purchase] is unfortunate, and definitely hurts results. The huge increase in management costs I shall look into more closely.
Cashflows have remained positive, and reflect hidden value from the reported Net Profits. This understated income has been utilized to pay down long term debt. This is a major bonus as no further Equity was required to be sold. In point of fact, common stock was reduced, also from cashflows. Cashflows have weakened, but are still showing a surplus that has not filtered through to Net Income.
Cash has increased, not unimportant with the coming problems anticipated in commercial real estate and thus impacting commercial REIT’s.
CapEx is a further cost that has been absorbed by the strong cashflows. Again, this is a little added value.
Revenues have been static. This represents the inability to raise rents. Of course the major concern would be leases renegotiated at lower rents going into the future, which would seriously impact Revenues and overall profitability. Again, leases will need to be further investigated.
All other operating ratio’s are and have been consistent, thus no immediate red flags have been thrown up.
Dividends have been consistently paid, with an approximate 6% compounded increase. Currently the dividend seems secure. This of course is the major concern. Should a serious recession strike this [healthcare] sector, can Revenues be maintained high enough to preserve at current levels the dividend? That there are some hidden cashflows that provide some cushion is positive, but, not conclusive.
Valuation: Currently, overvalued. I have an intrinsic value range from $16.50-$22.39 and with a current price circa $30, we would be paying a premium. However, current Yield is circa 7% this is not an insubstantial factor if as mentioned, this dividend is relatively secure.
NHI Increases Dividend to 55 Cents
February 5, 2008 4:31
National Health Investors, Inc., NHI announced today that it will pay a first quarter dividend of 55 cents per common share to shareholders of record on March 31, 2008 and payable on May 9, 2008. This is an increase of five cents, or 10% over last quarter’s dividend.
This 55 cent dividend reflects the company’s continued success in managing its portfolio and confidence in its future cash flow.
NHI specializes in the financing of health care real estate by purchase and leaseback and first mortgage transactions.
The long term debt is at variable rates of interest. Thus swings in the interest rate will effect a swing in cashflows due to interest paid. Thus the paying down of debt reduces the gains/losses to this variable.
The largest customer [NHC] who lease 41 properties, reached agreement to extend the leases through 2021
Increased diversification through customer base; this is important as when this REIT was started in 1991, NHC was the sole customer and constituted 100%. Currently NHC constitutes 14.1% of the portfolio.
Hidden value. When the assets were purchased [transferred via non-taxable exchange] the properties were valued at net depreciation book value, after 20+yrs of depreciation. Thus the actual values [land] will have appreciated at 4% compounded to provide increased [undervalued] assets.
No figures were provided, so feel free to speculate a little and add your own figures.
In summary, this REIT provides potential for conservative investment returns based on three main factors;
*Initial purchase price is reasonable
*Provides high dividend yield that is both secure and likely to grow
*Provides opportunity for capital growth over a period of time
Therefore, investors who are interested by income producing investments, should take a close look at this candidate.
April 3, 2008
PIV is an ETF that tracks the analytical model behind the Value Line methodology. Being an ETF it provides you with diversified exposure to the “Growth Stock” universe.
Growth stocks are very difficult to value accurately, and tend to have the need to be actively managed, thus having the Value Line analysts do this for you, and rebalance the portfolio seems an easy and lower risk way to access the Growth stock universe.
This chart details their track record;
April 2, 2008
Buying PIV for portfolio tomorrow.
March 13, 2008
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (Pinnacle West) owns all of the outstanding equity securities of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), its major subsidiary. APS is an electric utility that provides either retail or wholesale electric service to most of the state of Arizona. Pinnacle WestGÇÖs other principal subsidiary is SunCor Development Company (SunCor), which is engaged in real estate development activities in the western United States. Pinnacle West has two principal business segments: the regulated electricity segment (accounting for 83% of operating revenues during the year ended December 31, 2007), which consists of traditional regulated retail and wholesale electricity businesses (primarily electric service to Native Load customers) and related activities and includes electricity generation, transmission and distribution, and the real estate segment (accounting for 6% of operating revenues in 2007), which consists of SunCorGÇÖs real estate development and investment activities.
I’ll be starting an overall analysis over the weekend and running through next week.
